Microsoft's Windows 10 Panic Explained

One of the bigger problems with Microsoft's overly-pushy GWX push, for Microsoft themselves, is that it makes them look desperate. If Windows 10 really is as good as Microsoft is claiming, then why are they going to such dishonest, underhanded lengths to push it on users who aren't interested? Why can't they just sell it to those users on its merits?

It doesn't help that Windows 10's merits mostly aren't that impressive. Yes, it has a slightly smaller footprint, and runs a little faster, than earlier versions of Windows, but if your system already runs just fine on Windows 7, then Win10 just isn't a big performance upgrade. And, given that Windows comes laden with a lot of "telemetry" (i.e. spyware), and its hybrid Start Menu/Metro interface, complete with "sponsored" tiles (i.e. adware), the upside of switching just isn't enough to offset all the downside.

The result: people simply aren't switching at anywhere near the rate that Microsoft had projected, or needs them to. And that's a big problem for their efforts to revive or grow the XBox Live ecosystem, or establish a foothold in PC Gaming that's comparable to Steam.

From GamingBolt:

We already do know that the Xbox One is performing below expectations- the fact that Microsoft won’t even share numbers for the console, which is widely estimated to be trailing its competition by as much as 20 million units, should be evidence enough. But on the other hand, we’ve generally expected the company to be doing well on other fronts- after all, Windows 10 is supposed to be the fastest adopted OS of all time, Minecraft is the most successful game in the world, and games like Halo 5 have all sold at least a million copies, right?

It turns out, though, that relative to Microsoft’s projections, everything might be underperforming. In a long and extensive feature on Kotaku about Lionhead and their closure, and the demise of Fable Legends, a former, unnamed employee discusses the fundamental problem that Microsoft is facing- that of volumes, which they are no longer meeting, thanks to all their products underperforming relative to projections.

“Let’s be honest – we make our projections based on a series of assumptions,” said a former employee who worked closely with Microsoft. “There are supposed to be 2x as many Xboxes out there as there are right now. There are supposed to be 2x as many Windows 10 installs as there currently are. So now, when we look at how much money Legends could make in the free-to-play universe, you have to halve it. Because we can only reach half the audience that was projected.”

This halving of the potential audience, or market, for Microsoft's products isn't limited to Microsoft-produced games. The situation looks even more bleak when you consider how poorly Windows Phone is performing, and what that means for Microsoft's future in the critically-important smartphone market, which spent recent years growing in exactly the way that the PC market wasn't.



The mobile market's growth has slowed in the last year or so, now that everyone seems to own a good-enough smartphone, but "people aren't buying new smartphones anymore" isn't a bedtime story that will end happily for Windows 10 Phone, either. With a share of the smartphone market that's now dropped below 1%, Windows Phone is effectively dead, and many industry watchers are calling on Microsoft to just use Android, already:

Microsoft said Wednesday that its Windows Phone business is essentially dead. The firm is taking a nearly $1 billion loss and cutting about 1,850 jobs, most in Finland, between now and next summer. It’s a sad day for fans of the Windows Phone (now called Windows 10 for phones) platform, but the writing was on the wall. Microsoft should just use Android.

Microsoft’s mobile operating system market share was below 1 percent, and, if you’ve been following along, the company recently sold off its feature phone business. Even Microsoft seemed to be spending more time developing for other platforms. Its iOS and Android apps, often, were better than counterparts on Windows Phone. Microsoft’s executive vice president of Windows and Devices, Terry Myerson, in a letter to staff, said Microsoft will continue to “develop great new devices,” but admitted that it’s being “pragmatic and [embracing] other mobile platforms with [Microsoft’s] productivity services, device management services, and development tools – regardless of a person’s phone choice.” In other words, it’s still going to work to build great iOS and Android apps.

Android is the dominant OS on mobile platforms, and the mobile market is already so large that Android has become the most-used OS on the planet; Windows is king on desktops and laptops, but it's only #2 when mobile devices are included. And with Microsoft's share of the living room dwindling as well (XBox One is being outsold by PlayStation 4 by a 2-to-1 margin), and VALVe's Steam dominating gaming's PC download market (which basically is the PC gaming market, since bricks-and-mortar retailers basically stopped selling PC games a long time ago), that leaves Windows 10 as Microsoft's only hope: leveraging their dominance on the PC platform into a renewed presence in the consumer electronic markets that people use for everything other than work.

Do you own an XBox One? Well, it's already running on Windows 10, and will soon let you stream games from your XBOne to your PC. No XBOne? No problem: soon, you'll be able to buy XBOne games through the Windows Store, and run them on your PC, no XBOne required.

As Techworm put it:

This move does not come as a huge surprise from Microsoft. The Xbox One is running Windows 10, and Microsoft is also aggressively upgrading any PC that will run it to its new operating system. The company has set a long term goal of bringing all its products closer together, and this thought is just a natural extension of that. Microsoft has also been working to pull down multiplayer walls between PC and console gamers (and between consoles). The company obviously believes that a change will bring in a wave of fresh air.

Microsoft's GWX push doesn't just look desperate; it is desperate. There's no sign of Redmond having a plan B, in case this gamble doesn't pan out. No wonder they're "all in" on GWX, and ignoring all the outcry that's resulted. PC is the only arena in which they can still be the bullies; everywhere else, everyone else is eating their lunch.

E3 is just around the corner, and I'm sure we'll be hearing, once again, about how serious Microsoft are about PC gaming, and how they're not trying at all to steal market share from Steam (i.e. not trying at all to piss off any of VALVe's loyal Steam customers). Just remember what sort of a deep, dark, desperate place Microsoft are speaking from, when you listen to all that meaningless lip service and empty hype.