Hey now, you're an all-star...

Recording this event for posterity, on this 12th day of December, 2022:

Most of the FTX news from the preceding 24 hours had been all about how SBF was going to testify before Congress, and what would he say when testifying before Congress.

SBF will not be testifying before Congress. Because he's too busy. Being in prison.

I want to know what the charges will be. I mean, obviously it will be some species of fraud, but I'm dying to know the specifics. Admit it... you're dying to know, too.

Happy Monday!

FTC vs. ATVI+MSFT, in perspective

It appears that Lina Khan is serious about putting the brakes on tech industry mergers. Much to the surprise of many, many pundits and LawTubers, the FTC is suing to block Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard King (ABK).

The consensus of opinion seems to be coalescing around the idea that the FTC's case is weak. This consensus essentially takes Microsoft's position at face value:

1. that Microsoft Gaming is a much, much smaller player in the video games industry than either PlayStation (owned by Sony) or Nintendo;
2. that Microsoft have no presence in mobile gaming at all, unlike ABK, or any of ABK's major competitors in the mobile space, like Tencent or NetEase;
3. that Microsoft's control of ABK will have no competitive impact on the industry, since they're going to leave Call of Duty (CoD) available on competing platforms, including both Sony's PlayStation and Nintendo's Switch, for ten years.

If you assume that this argument is 100% true, then Sony appear to be freaked out over the deal for essentially no reason at all, and the FTC's objections to the deal appear to be entirely political. At best, the collective thinking goes, suing to block the deal is effectively a bargaining ploy: the entire process of resolving the suit could prolong the process of getting the deal done for months or years, and cost Microsoft hundreds of millions of additional dollars in penalties (per the deal) and legal fees. Faced with this prospect, Microsoft might be more amenable to the types of concessions the FTC might ask for.

I'm going to be the contrarian in the room, though, and point out that the FTC might be looking at a bigger picture than just this deal between Microsoft Gaming and ABK. Real talk here: taken as an independent entity, Microsoft Gaming, third-place purveyor of money-losing consoles and the games that people can play on them, probably don't have 68.7 billion US dollars to spend buying ABK or anyone else. This deal is only possible because Microsoft Gaming isn't an independent entity; it's only possible because Microsoft Gaming is merely the gaming division of a much, much larger entity.

Microsoft Gaming isn't buying ABK. Microsoft Corporation is buying ABK. And, viewed through that longer lens, the picture looks a lot different.