June 01, 2016

Windows 10 market share rose in May...


... but Windows 7 and XP are staying strong.


From Woody Leonhard at InfoWorld:
It's the first of the month, and everybody and his blogging bro will be dissecting the latest usage numbers from Net Applications and StatCounter. That much is sure. The rest is reading tea leaves.
The Net Applications numbers for desktop operating systems may lead you to conclude that something's screwy. The changes between April and May:
  • Windows 10 was up 2 percent to a 17.4 percent market share.
  • Windows 7 was up 0.7 percent to a 48.6 percent market share.
  • Windows XP was down 0.5 percent to a 10.1 percent market share.
The rise in Windows 10 usage was to be expected, given Microsoft's strong-arm Get Windows 10 campaign. But why is Windows 7 usage up? Are people flocking to stores to buy new Win7 computers? Not likely. I think the rise has a lot more to do with people who are blissfully unaware of the GWX campaign, plus those who refuse to be trampled by the forced march. In either case, I doubt a beefed-up GWX push will net much more Win10 usage, while it will certainly raise users' hackles.
[...]
I tremulously offer my takeaway from the numbers onslaught:
  • Windows 10 is moving along quickly and taking Edge with it, but it doesn't look like a landslide -- and Microsoft is running out of tricks.
  • Windows 7 remains amazingly strong in spite of (or perhaps because of) the much-maligned GWX campaign.
  • Everybody has finally figured out that IE needs to die quickly, and Chrome's the alternative of choice.
  • XP is going to be around for a long time.
Microsoft will obviously try to spin this as a huge win for their Windows 10 strategy, but I think that Leonhard is spot on here. Windows 10 is gaining only through dirty tricks and deception, and turning off a lot of people in the process; a lot of those Windows 7 hold-outs are holding out because they don't trust Redmond anymore, and they probably won't switch OSes unless they buy a new PC with Windows 10 already installed.

Even worse for Microsoft... a lot of those same people work in IT, and are advising their bosses right now about whether to upgrade to Windows 10... or switch to Apple, or Linux. Yes, that's right, Microsoft is hard at work alienating the very influencers who'll help determine whether Windows 10 Enterprise takes off like a rocket, or flops hard like Windows 8. Well done, Microsoft. Nice job.

UPDATE: WindowsReport has a pretty good take on the numbers:
It appears that Microsoft has a new in-house motto: all ends justify the means. The tech giant finally managed to “convince” more users to upgrade to Windows 10, and the success of its methods have wielded result: a market share of 17,43% at the beginning of June versus 15,34% in April.
But in truth, Microsoft doesn’t deserve to be congratulated for this success. The much-maligned, unorthodox methods it pursued to achieve this result can only be condemned as unfair and manipulative [...] Microsoft probably took the decision to shovel Windows 10 down its users’ throats after the adoption rate for its latest OS experienced a slowdown at the beginning of May. The company’s pushy behavior made users angry, and many even considered switching sides.
[...] 
What we do know for sure is that the extra 2% market share for Windows 10  is actually represented by former Windows 8 and 8.1 users since both operating systems lost almost 1% of their market share.
This makes sense; Windows 8 was very poorly received, and most of Windows 10's B.S. (i.e. "telemetry," Universal Windows Platform, etc.) can be found in Win8 and 8.1, anyway. It's only Windows 7 users who would be making a significant sacrifice of autonomy to "upgrade," something which discouraged many of us from upgrading to Windows 8 when it came out. I'm not at all surprised that the same people who held out last time, rather than switch to Windows 8 (or 8.1), are still holding out against Microsoft's increasingly heavy-handed Windows 10 push.