Unpopular opinion: XBox Game Pass is not a good value for the average consumer

Have I mentioned lately just how crazy it makes me, every single I hear someone describe Microsoft's "Netflix for gaming" Game Pass subscription service as the "best deal in gaming?" Because it really, really does, and it keeps happening.

Just fucking Christ... People, it's real talk time. 

For most gamers, Game Pass is not a good value. 

That's not just my opinion; quite simply, it's the math. So, let's look at that math. Specifically, let's look at the average attach rate of a videogame console.

Yes, Virginia, this really is the last console generation

It remains to be seen if Nintendo's Switch can reverse a decade-long decline in sales of both consoles and handhelds for the company, but barring a repeat of the pop culture phenomenon that was the original Wii (unlikely), it really is looking more and more like we've seen the last of true video game consoles. Even Sony's PS4, which is the best-selling "console" of the current generation, is more of a media centre PC than a true video game console, and Microsoft have already announced that they're abandoning the generational model for the XBox product line.

The question really isn't, "Is this the last console generation?" The question is, "How long will it take for games journalists to start reporting it as such?"

It looks like we may not have to wait much longer for the answer.

Up to now, talk of video game consoles has mostly revolved around the question of which console is winning this round of the console war. It's past time to stop talking about consoles as a separate thing, though, and start talking about video games as a general thing. Sony already says that the main competition for the PS4 is the PC, not the XBox, and I think they're right. All that remains is for gaming journalists to catch up to the reality.

Yes, the PS4 is selling well. No, that doesn't mean that this isn't still the last console generation.

I've been running into a particular argument every so often, lately: that the PS4 is selling well, therefore consoles are still as big as ever.

The fact that Sony themselves say that they're trying to compete with PCs and not XBoxes; the fact that Microsoft has straight-out said that the the concept of console generations is passé; the fact that this generation of consoles were all very PC-like, except for the WiiU, which flopped; the fact that none of the current generation of consoles is anywhere near Steam's 125 million users; none of that matters to these console evangelists. PS4's exceptionally good sales must be the only meaningful data point, right?

I disagree. And I'm not the only one.

From Business Insider:

The PlayStation 4 is killing it. Sony announced on Wednesday that it has sold 50 million PS4 consoles since the device launched in November 2013. All signs point to that being a good ways ahead of Microsoft’s Xbox One and Nintendo’s Wii U, which is no longer being made.

Considering that the PS4 arrived at a time when many onlookers said the home gaming console was in its death throes, that’s a very strong figure. But as this chart from Statista shows, it’s still a long way from its predecessors.

The PS4 has been on the market for a much shorter time, but it’s hard to say if it’ll ever reach the summit. The PlayStation 2 was many people’s main DVD player, the Wii hit the pre-smartphone casual gamer jackpot, and the original PlayStation was a breath of fresh air that stayed on sale for nearly 12 years.

[...]

It's easy to forget that the PS2's record-setting sales were due, in large part, to PS2 being a cheap DVD player, and not just because it was a great game system. It also bears mentioning that neither XBox One nor WiiU made this "top 10" list, having been beaten by Super Nintendo, Nintendo 64, and Sega Genesis; PS4 is still some distance behind the original NES.

More interesting, though, is how this console generation compares to the last. PS2 is still the all-time highest selling console, beating the #2 finisher (the original PlayStation) by a whopping 54 million units, but the next three spots on the list are all from the last console generation. Nintendo's Wii was the clear winner of generation 7, but it was only 16 million units ahead of the PS3, which actually came from behind to edge out the XBox 360. That's 273 million consoles, pretty evenly distributed among the three big console manufacturers, in the last console generation.

This generation sees the PS4 at 50 million, followed by the XBOne at about half of that (Microsoft stopped talking about their sales numbers when the PS4 was at 40M and the XBOne was at 20M, and there's no particular reason to believe that they've closed the gap since). And the WiiU was selling only half as well as the XBOne when Nintendo stopped making it, leaving only 13.32 million units in circulation, total. That means that the consoles of this generation have managed only 85 million in sales or so, combined, with PS4's gains coming at the expense of its competitors.

Meanwhile, Steam has an estimated 125 million users... and has every reason to believe that those gamers will continue to game on Steam for the foreseeable future. After all, it's not like their current PC titles will fail to work on future PCs, meaning that they don't have to start from scratch building an entirely new library of games every few years. That gives Steam, and PC gaming generally, a kind of momentum that consoles can't match. No wonder Sony is making the PS4 as PC-like as possible, while Microsoft's XBOne straight up runs Windows 10 now.

XBox Scorpio is still coming, as is the Nintendo Switch, and both will sell millions of units when they launch, but I'm not expecting either offering to change the overall trajectory of this console generation any more than the PS4 Pro did. The movement away from consoles (which run on exclusivity) and towards Steam and Android (which run on open-ness) seems pretty clear by now; even the AAA PC games publishers have been unable to break this trend, with "walled garden" services like Origin and Uplay failing to lure users away from Steam; it seems like even PC gamers are only using those services to install the games that they're buying elsewhere, and not as the portal for all their gaming.

So, is this still the last console generation? I think it is, and I don't think that PS4's exceptional sales numbers change that, simply because PS4's sales are the exception, when it comes to console sales, and not the rule, while Steam continues to strengthen its hold as gaming's #1 platform, a hold that even Microsoft now seem unable to break.

PlayStation Now streaming service available today on Windows PCs

From TechCrunch:

You don’t need a PlayStation to play PlayStation games anymore: Sony’s Playstation Now subscription-based game streaming service is now out for PC, and you an grab the app and start playing some of PlayStation’s best legacy titles immediately if you’ve got a Windows machine.

It’ll cost you, of course – but not as much as you would’ve paid for the games available individually. A 12-month subscription to PlayStation Now will run you $99.99 as part of a limited-time promotion to celebrate the PC launch. Normally, a PS Now subscription will run you more than double that.

The $100 doesn't include a Dual Shock controller, naturally, which you'll need to buy separately, so you're actually looking at closer to $150 to try this for a year ($200 CAD), but the list of games is impressive. It includes Journey, for one thing, which I've always wanted to try, but not enough to buy a PS3; now I can try it, for about the cost of a PS3*.

Yeah... Hype, people. Never believe the hype.

For those keeping track, this is Sony, who are winning the current-gen console contest with Microsoft and Nintendo, now wanting to see PlayStation Now on Windows PCs because that's the money is. Just like Microsoft did with XBox Live, after admitting that we probably weren't ever going to see another console generation from Microsoft's direction, just PC-like updates of the XBox One. That just leaves Nintendo to pretend that console gaming economics still make sense, after announcing that they'd stopped production on Wii U entirely, and with NX not actually announced yet.

Yes, folks, this really is the last console generation. Sony will keep making boxes with the PlayStation logo on them, just like Microsoft will keep shipping XBoxes, and Nintendo will ship whatever their next thing is actually going to be called when that time comes, but the writing really is on the wall, and it's really not that hard to read.

* It is possible to pay $19.99 a month, instead, and there's also a free 7-day trial for people that are willing to give Sony their CC numbers, because apparently people still fall for that one. Personally, I will be giving this a miss.

Microsoft says this might be the last console generation

It's more of a confirmation than anything else, but this really is looking more and more like it'll be the last console generation.

From Engadget:

"The future of Xbox looks a lot like PC gaming." That's what Engadget editor Nathan Ingraham wrote after speaking with Phil Spencer earlier this year. Spencer spoke about wanting to see a steady stream of hardware innovation rather than seven-year gaps between consoles, citing the smartphone market as inspiration. Greenberg went one step further. In his opinion, this is the last console generation. "We think the future is without console generations," he said, explaining that Project Scorpio was a "big bet" that gamers will embrace that notion.

Q: The Xbox platform has moved forward to have such regular updates and new features coming all the time. It kind of seems like hardware is going the same way. There was a very short gap between the Xbox One and the Xbox One S, and we're probably talking an even shorter gap before Project Scorpio. Do you see a future of console upgrades continually happening? Is this the last console generation?

Greenberg: I think it is. ... For us, we think the future is without console generations; we think that the ability to build a library, a community, to be able to iterate with the hardware -- we're making a pretty big bet on that with Project Scorpio. We're basically saying, "This isn't a new generation; everything you have continues forward and it works." We think of this as a family of devices.

But we'll see. We're going to learn from this, we're going to see how that goes. So far I'd say, based on the reaction, there appears to be a lot of demand and interest around Project Scorpio, and we think it's going to be a pretty big success. If the games and the content deliver, which I think they will do, I think it will change the way we think about the future of console gaming.

Emphasis added, natch.

"Greenberg" is Aaron Greenberg, Microsoft's head of Xbox games marketing, who also tried hard to put a brave face on the way Sony handed Microsoft's ass to them, this console generation ("It's been a good industry for both of us, and we're innovating in different ways"), and some clarification on whether Scorpio will get console-exclusive releases ("It's one ecosystem -- whether you have an Xbox One S or Project Scorpio, we don't want anyone to be left behind"), but the headline of this piece just leaped out at me.

In other news: Told you so.

Sony is still selling PS4's (although Nintendo's given up on the Wii U completely), and it still remains to be seen how Sony's "Neo," Nintendo's "NX," and/or Microsoft's "Scorpio" are received by consumers, many of whom just either bought a gaming system or didn't want one, but the future of gaming really is looking more and more like PCs.

XBox Boss says that gaming is now "beyond generations"

Phil Spencer's team is losing this console generation badly, so I can see why he'd have a vested interest in getting people to break out of their pre-set thinking about console gaming cycles, but I was still a little surprised when he came straight out with the fact that Scorpio marked the beginning of the end for console generations in gaming.

From GamingBolt:

“Project Scorpio will be the next addition to the Xbox One family and it ultimately is the next step in delivering our vision for the future of gaming beyond generations,” Spencer said.

[...]

"Project Scorpio is a serious inflection point for team Xbox and we are announcing Project Scorpio today to gives our developers and partners to take advantage of that ability now in order to realize their visions for the future and deliver even more great games for you. Today marks the beginning of gaming beyond generations. A future full of choice. All future where can all play without boundaries.”

It’s a bold and ambitious vision, and a dramatic change from how console gaming has been so far.

It's a vision in which there essentially isn't a next console generation, so I guess bold is as good as way as any to describe it. I don't know if it's ambitious, though, so much as realistic. After all, some of us have been talking about this being the last console generation for some time, now.

That's right. I called it. Booyah.

Microsoft's Windows 10 Panic Explained

One of the bigger problems with Microsoft's overly-pushy GWX push, for Microsoft themselves, is that it makes them look desperate. If Windows 10 really is as good as Microsoft is claiming, then why are they going to such dishonest, underhanded lengths to push it on users who aren't interested? Why can't they just sell it to those users on its merits?

It doesn't help that Windows 10's merits mostly aren't that impressive. Yes, it has a slightly smaller footprint, and runs a little faster, than earlier versions of Windows, but if your system already runs just fine on Windows 7, then Win10 just isn't a big performance upgrade. And, given that Windows comes laden with a lot of "telemetry" (i.e. spyware), and its hybrid Start Menu/Metro interface, complete with "sponsored" tiles (i.e. adware), the upside of switching just isn't enough to offset all the downside.

The result: people simply aren't switching at anywhere near the rate that Microsoft had projected, or needs them to. And that's a big problem for their efforts to revive or grow the XBox Live ecosystem, or establish a foothold in PC Gaming that's comparable to Steam.

From GamingBolt:

We already do know that the Xbox One is performing below expectations- the fact that Microsoft won’t even share numbers for the console, which is widely estimated to be trailing its competition by as much as 20 million units, should be evidence enough. But on the other hand, we’ve generally expected the company to be doing well on other fronts- after all, Windows 10 is supposed to be the fastest adopted OS of all time, Minecraft is the most successful game in the world, and games like Halo 5 have all sold at least a million copies, right?

It turns out, though, that relative to Microsoft’s projections, everything might be underperforming. In a long and extensive feature on Kotaku about Lionhead and their closure, and the demise of Fable Legends, a former, unnamed employee discusses the fundamental problem that Microsoft is facing- that of volumes, which they are no longer meeting, thanks to all their products underperforming relative to projections.

“Let’s be honest – we make our projections based on a series of assumptions,” said a former employee who worked closely with Microsoft. “There are supposed to be 2x as many Xboxes out there as there are right now. There are supposed to be 2x as many Windows 10 installs as there currently are. So now, when we look at how much money Legends could make in the free-to-play universe, you have to halve it. Because we can only reach half the audience that was projected.”

This halving of the potential audience, or market, for Microsoft's products isn't limited to Microsoft-produced games. The situation looks even more bleak when you consider how poorly Windows Phone is performing, and what that means for Microsoft's future in the critically-important smartphone market, which spent recent years growing in exactly the way that the PC market wasn't.

Windows 10's spyware coming to XBox One

From The Guardian:

Microsoft has announced a new summer update for the Xbox One console, which will include support for the company’s digital personal assistant, Cortana, and will more closely align the console with Windows 10 PCs. A more unified online store will offer both PC and console titles, and Xbox One will also be able to support some Windows apps.

Microsoft is calling the Xbox One version of Cortana a “personal gaming assistant”. As on PC and smartphone, she is able to learn your current whereabouts and where your key locations are, so you’ll be able to ask it, while you’re playing a game at home, how long it’ll take you to get to work. Any information you request from Cortana will be displayed in a panel at the side of the main game screen.

To communicate, players simply have to say “hey Cortana” – a sentence that Microsoft claims is easier for the system to pick up than the old “Xbox” prompt. Players won’t need Kinect, as any Xbox One headset with a microphone will suffice. Players will also be able to ask Cortana what their friends are doing onXbox, and it’s possible to invite friends into a Party chat via Cortana voice controls.

Remember when Microsoft first announced the XBox One? It was going to come bundled with Kinect, which was going to be on all the time, would be constantly connected to the internet, and would constantly monitor the environment for any sound or motion that it could interpret as a command prompt. And people lost their shit:

Prior to Xbox One's launch, privacy concerns were raised over the new Kinect; critics showed concerns the device could be used for surveillance, stemming from the originally announced requirements that Xbox One's Kinect be plugged in at all times, plus the initial always-on DRM system that required the console to be connected to the internet to ensure continued functionality. Privacy advocates contended that the increased amount of data which could be collected with the new Kinect (such as a person's eye movements, heart rate, and mood) could be used for targeted advertising.

Reports also surfaced regarding recent Microsoft patents involving Kinect, such as a DRM system based on detecting the number of viewers in a room, and tracking viewing habits by awarding achievements for watching television programs and advertising. While Microsoft stated that its privacy policy "prohibit[s] the collection, storage, or use of Kinect data for the purpose of advertising", critics did not rule out the possibility that these policies could be changed prior to the release of the console.

Concerns were also raised that the device could also record conversations, as its microphone remains active at all times.

So, fast forward to 2016, and Microsoft are now replicating one of the most unwelcome and problematic features of its XBox One platform, using Windows 10's Cortana, which is also causing privacy concerns:

In order to work, Cortana logs your voice (to process what you’re saying), location (to give you location-specific answers), your writing (to answer questions), your contacts (so you can reference them), calendar events (so it can create, delete, or give information about your upcoming appointments), and more. That’s a lot of stuff!

[...]

This, coupled with the “Send Microsoft info about how I write” setting mentioned earlier, is the biggest privacy concern in Windows 10, primarily because the language is so vague. The “Getting to Know You” setting does not specify where or when it can collect, say, “typing history”, which is troubling.

What could possibly go wrong? It's not like Cortana is locked to Bing, and uses a web service to perform all searches, even searches of your local files... except, of course, that Cortana does exactly that.

It remains to be seen if this causes the same kind of crapstorm among XBOne customers that GWX is causing among Win7 PC users. Gamers, generally, appear to more accepting of Win10 and its crap, and console gamers, in particular, might not be sufficiently well-informed to know about the potential problems here. No idea if Spybot Anti-Beacon will work on XBOnes, either.