The end is nigh...

If you haven't switched to Windows 10 yet, you're almost out of time, and Microsoft will finally stop asking.

From ZDNet:

Microsoft's year-long offer to Windows 7 and 8.X PC and tablet users to get Windows 10 as a free update ends today, July 29, as Microsoft reconfirmed it would back in May this year.

What else ends today? Microsoft's aggressive campaign to get those users to update to Windows 10 via its "Get Windows 10" app and prompts.

I've been working to track down some more specifics as to what will happen after today, regarding GWX and automatic installs of the Windows 10 November Update (1511). Microsoft has been very (I'd say, overly) pushy about trying to get users to take the free update -- so pushy that there are two more suits against the company over this that are seeking class-action status, as reported by The Seattle Times.

Here are some of my questions and Microsoft answers (provided via a spokesperson) about the end of the GWX campaign.

[...]

Q: Will MS still be marking Windows 10 as a recommended update on July 30 to those with Auto Updates turned on? Or will this no longer be the case?

A: The free upgrade offer ends at 11:59 p.m. UTC-10 on July 29, 2016. As such, it will no longer be available as a recommended update through Windows Update. (MJF note: This is the first time Microsoft officials have said this. I've been asking for the past couple of months and they declined to comment.)

Q: Microsoft officials said it will take a while for all the Get Windows 10 prompts to stop showing up. If people running Win 7/8.X see the GWX prompt starting July 30 and click on it, what happens? Will they go to a site suggesting they buy the update?

A: On July 29th the notifications will end. The Get Windows 10 (GWX) application will advise that the free upgrade offer has ended. In time, we will remove the application.

Thank God.

Microsoft just made Windows 10 Pro less appealing to Pros

By now, I really should be used to Microsoft constantly lowering the Windows 10 bar, but it's somehow still an ugly surprise each and every time when they do something else to make their new OS less appealing. It really shouldn't be possible, but they keep finding new ways to suck.

From ghacks.net:

Professional editions of Windows 10 ship with the Group Policy Editor that enables users and administrators to make changes to the default configuration of the operating system.

Up until now, policy availability was more or less identical for all professional versions of Windows 10. Turns out, this is no longer the case when the Windows 10 Anniversary Update is released.

Some policies contain a note stating that they only apply to certain editions of Windows 10, with Windows 10 Pro not being listed as one of them.

Furthermore, the corresponding Registry keys are not working either anymore which means that Pro users have no option to make changes to features affected by the change.

[...]

The big one is the Turn off Microsoft consumer experiences policy. We have talked about the feature previously. It powers among other things the installation of third-party apps and extra links on Windows 10.

I swear, the moon's orbit is now slightly closer to Earth than it was before Microsoft launched Windows 10.

Cortana not included in latest Windows 10 education update

Considering how hard Microsoft is pushing Cortana in the Anniversary Update, along with the Bing search service that it's married to (no Google for you), I found it rather interesting that they'd have versions of Windows 10 that don't include Cortana at all, but apparently that's exactly what they've done.

From PCR:

Microsoft has announced two new versions of Windows, specifically catering to schools.

The two new versions of the OS – Windows 10 Pro Education and Windows 10 Education – “provide education-specific default settings for the evolving landscape in K-12 education IT environments."

Most interestingly from the list of omissions from both versions is the removal of Cortana. The Microsoft Store and other productivity tips will not appear either.

Cortana, one of Microsoft's biggest selling points since its introduction in 2014, being left out of this latest update to Windows for education can be seen as an admission that the service is, as many have claimed, overly invasive.

[...]

Anybody who purchased Windows 10 Pro under an Academic Licence will see the upgrade happen automatically. This means that education users will lose the features specified by Microsoft, regardless of if they want them or not.

With this upgrade, Microsoft are announcing that it believes the most secure and education-friendly versions of Windows omits both Cortana and its own Windows help features. Some users with other licences might like to see this trend follow suit across future Windows 10 updates.

With CNIL waiting to impose sanctions on Microsoft over the invasiveness of Windows 10's data collection, I find it slightly surprising that Redmond are (a) forcing consumers to keep Cortana active, and married to Win10's built-in search functionality, while also (b) tacitly admitting that Cortana really is invasive enough that they didn't think forcing it on schools would be defensible. I have a feeling that might make things awkward for them in the coming months, as they try to find some way to convince CNIL to let them keep pursuing all of their anti-competitive and anti-consumer (but profitable!) initiatives.

Also: Yes, this is a forced update.... that will remove functionality from the OS for some users. Yay?

The floodgates are definitely open

We all knew that Microsoft's GWX lawsuit woes weren't going to end with one travel agent in Sausalito. It really was just a matter of time until the class action floodgates opened; the question was not if? but when? and the answer, apparently, is now.

From the Seattle Times:

Microsoft is facing two lawsuits seeking class-action status related to the company’s campaign to get people to use Windows 10.

Three Florida men sued Microsoft in U.S. District Court in Florida on Friday, saying Microsoft’s Windows 10 update prompts violated laws governing unsolicited electronic advertisements, as well as Federal Trade Commission prohibitions on deceptive and unfair practices.

Microsoft was also sued last month in district court in Haifa, Israel. That suit, which is also seeking class-action status, alleges Windows 10 installed on Windows users’ computers without their consent. That, the suit alleges, violates Israeli computer law.

Microsoft responded with the normal boilerplate legal-speak (“we believe the plaintiffs’ claims are without merit and we are confident we’ll be successful in court”) that corporations use whenever anyone sues them, and the Times piece goes on state their position:

The company said updates to Windows 10 are a choice, not a requirement, and that Microsoft offers free customer support for those who run into trouble. People who update to Windows 10 can roll back to their prior system for 31 days afterward, Microsoft says.

Of course... because that worked so well for them, the last time they tried it.

Tim Sweeney still isn't a fan of the Universal Windows Platform

From Gadgets 360, via Slashdot:

A few months ago, Tim Sweeney, co-founder of Epic Games, the studio behind the Gears of War and Unreal franchises, was in the news for criticising Microsoft's Universal Windows Platform (UWP).

[...]

Now Sweeney alleges that Microsoft plans to make Steam - the world's largest PC gaming platform, "progressively worse and more broken."

"Slowly, over the next five years, they will force-patch Windows 10 to make Steam progressively worse and more broken. They'll never completely break it, but will continue to break it until, in five years, people are so fed up that Steam is buggy that the Windows Store seem like an ideal alternative. That's exactly what they did to their previous competitors in other areas. Now they're doing it to Steam. It's only just starting to become visible. Microsoft might not be competent enough to succeed with their plan but they are certainly trying," Sweeney said in an interview with Edge Magazine (via NeoGAF).

[...]

"If they can succeed in doing that then it's a small leap to forcing all apps and games to be distributed through the Windows store. Once we reach that point, the PC has become a closed platform. It won't be that one day they flip a switch that will break your Steam library - what they're trying to do is a series of sneaky manoeuvres. They make it more and more inconvenient to use the old apps, and, simultaneously, they try to become the only source for the new ones," he claims.

Early on in the interview he says that Microsoft has been "able to [start] this via some sneaky PR moves. They make a bunch of statements that sound vaguely like they're promising openness but really they're not promising anything of the sort."

Considering that Microsoft are desperate not to piss off Steam PC gamers, I'm not sure that I entirely buy this line of argument, but it's certainly possible, and Microsoft haven't exactly done anything in the last year to earn the benefit of the doubt from consumers. It'll be interesting to see:

1. if Microsoft take time to respond to Sweeney this time around, the way they did last time, especially since he's not backing down on the rhetoric at all;
2. if the possibility that any such move would bring down the wrath of regulators in the US, the EU, and elsewhere has any impact here, especially since CNIL's recent actions have ensured that Microsoft pay a lot more attention to this possibility; and
3. if Valve do more in the coming months to push SteamOS and Steam Machine, which looked to be the core of their anti-UWP strategy but haven't been very actively promoted since they launched the Steam Link.

Stick a PIN in this one for later. Sweeney clearly isn't backing down or going away on this issues, and sooner or later we'll find out whether he was right about Microsoft's UWP long game.

Cortana still spies on you, and now can't be turned off

I had a feeling that I'd made the right choice by not switching to Windows 10, and I was right.

From PC World:

Microsoft made an interesting decision with Windows 10’s Anniversary Update, which is now in its final stages of development before it rolls out on August 2.
Cortana, the personal digital assistant that replaced Windows 10’s search function and taps into Bing’s servers to answer your queries with contextual awareness, no longer has an off switch.

The impact on you at home: Similar to how Microsoft blocked Google compatibility with Cortana, the company is now cutting off the plain vanilla search option. That actually makes a certain of amount of sense. Unless you turned off all the various cloud-connected bits of Windows 10, there’s not a ton of difference between Cortana and the operating system's basic search capabilities.

[...]

But what if you still don’t want to use Cortana at all?

Refusing to download the Anniversary Update is not an option. You can delay it, but since Windows 10 updates are mandatory for home users, you’ll eventually receive the update—and its unkillable Cortana

Microsoft, it's shit like this that's making me hate you.

Really, really bad timing

With a last-minute onslaught of PR-department fueled "last chance to upgrade for free" stories flooding the 'net, coverage of CNIL's stark warnings to Microsoft about the seriously deficient privacy package that comes with Windows 10 have been somewhat drowned out in the news cycle, so it's heartening to see that some are determined to link the two stories into the single narrative that they should be. Por ejemplo, Gordon Kelly at Forbes:

July is a huge month for Microsoft because it marks the end of free Windows 10 upgrades. But it also coincides with serious new warnings issued about the operating system…

The warnings come directly from France’s National Data Protection Commission (CNIL) which has accused Microsoft of using Windows 10 for “collecting excessive data and tracking browsing by users without their consent”.

The CNIL also claims Microsoft collects “irrelevant or excessive data”, does not have “satisfactory measures to ensure the security and confidentiality of user data”, does not abide by the European Union’s ‘Safe Habour’ rules because it stores user data outside their home country without consent and damns the company for the lack of user consent Windows 10 provides as it enables so many data tracking features by default.

[...]

The timing of the investigation couldn’t be worse for Microsoft as free Windows 10 upgrades will end on July 29th and a late surge of upgraders has been expected. Whether the findings of the CNIL will hinder this globally remains to be seen, but it certainly won’t be comforting to users still sitting on the fence.

The news also overshadows the impending launch of the Windows 10 Anniversary Update, which is packed with useful upgrades, and is also timed to tempt users to migrate from Windows 7 and Windows 8 before the deadline.

The big question is now whether the actions of the French authority will trigger similar declarations from other countries. Something that would prove a public relations nightmare for Windows 10 around the world.

(Emphasis added, of course.)

It's good to see a masthead with some significant giving space to some due diligence on the intersection of these narrative threads: #upgradegate and its fallout; the desperate last push of Microsoft's GWX campaign; and the imminent Anniversary Update which is meant to dangle extra carrots in front of reticent Windows 7 hold-outs. At first blush, these may seem like unrelated stories, but they're very definitely related. Some good work by Kelly, here, to connect the dots, especially in this last week of GWX, when Microsoft would clearly love for the prevailing story to by about just really anything else.

Removing Windows 10's default apps: yes, you need a (3rd party) app for that

You want to know why I'm not switching to Windows 10? It's because of this kind of bullshit.

From PC World:

For the most part, Windows 10 makes uninstalling very easy, but not consistently so. Some of Microsoft’s own built-in apps appear to be impossible to remove. The good news is that you can remove them. It’s just that Windows doesn’t clearly show you how to do it.

[...]

Some—such as News, Money, and Get Office—can be uninstalled the usual way. Just right-click the tile, select Uninstall, and then confirm your choice by selecting Uninstall again.

But that doesn’t work with all of them. Right-click on Films & TV, Groove Music, or People, and there’s no uninstall option.

For these, use Piriform’s CCleaner. The free version will do.
Once you have the program ready, select Tools > Uninstall. Then select the unwanted app and click Uninstall.

One Windows 10 program you won’t find on CCleaner’s list is Edge. As near as I can tell, you can’t uninstall it. The best you can do is assign another browser as your default, and unpin it from your taskbar and Start menu. After that it won’t bother you.

Good to see that Microsoft has learned nothing from their Internet Explorer experience. I get that pushing Edge, and the Bing search which it's married to, are a big part of Microsoft's corporate strategy going forward, but for users of Chrome and Firefox to be forced to keep Edge installed even though they have no intention of using it? Or to make their Groove Music media streaming app uninstallable? That's a slap in the face to consumers.

As a consumer, what I want is enough information to make informed choices about the products that I'll use, and the right to have those choices respected. Microsoft is all about denying me both of those things, though, which is why I'm gradually learning to hate everything about them, so the point of turning down a free* Windows 10 licence largely out of spite. GG, Microsoft. GG.

* It's not actually free. You're still paying, in the form of advertising on your lock screen and Start menu; you're just not being asked to pay up front.

Here's the other reason why PC sales are in decline

Were you wondering why PC sales have been declining for 14 straight quarters, or why smartphone sales are also declining? The slow death of Moore's Law may be part of the answer.

From IEEE Spectrum:

After more than 50 years of miniaturization, the transistor could stop shrinking in just five years. That is the prediction of the 2015 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, which was officially released earlier this month.

After 2021, the report forecasts, it will no longer be economically desirable for companies to continue to shrink the dimensions of transistors in microprocessors. Instead, chip manufacturers will turn to other means of boosting density, namely turning the transistor from a horizontal to a vertical geometry and building multiple layers of circuitry, one on top of another.

[...]

These roadmapping shifts may seem like trivial administrative changes. But “this is a major disruption, or earthquake, in the industry,” says analyst Dan Hutcheson, of the firm firm VLSI Research. U.S. semiconductor companies had reason to cooperate and identify common needs in the early 1990’s, at the outset of the roadmapping effort that eventually led to the ITRS’s creation in 1998. Suppliers had a hard time identifying what the semiconductor companies needed, he says, and it made sense for chip companies to collectively set priorities to make the most of limited R&D funding.

But the difficulty and expense associated with maintaining the leading edge of Moore’s Law has since resulted in significant consolidation. By Hutcheson’s count, 19 companies were developing and manufacturing logic chips with leading-edge transistors in 2001. Today, there are just four: Intel, TSMC, Samsung, and GlobalFoundries.

For those who've been paying attention, this isn't anything new.

Facebook's acquisition of Oculus may not have been a good thing for VR

At least, so thinks veteran tech investor Mitch Lasky.

From GamesIndustry.biz:

Speaking at Casual Connect USA today, Lasky admitted that his "intense emotional experience" while using the current high-end headsets did not convince him that VR was a smart investment within the next few years.

[...]

"When I look at it more structurally, I'd say something that may sound a little strange: perhaps the Facebook acquisition of Oculus wasn't the greatest thing for the development of virtual reality in the long-run," Lasky said. "It set such a high watermark, and it rung the bell so loudly for the industry, that it sort of forced the hand."

Had it been Samsung, HTC or Softbank spending that $2 billion, Lasky said, there might have been a few more raised eyebrows regarding the wisdom of the investment. "But Facebook is smart money," he continued, "and it really established an arms race of sorts in that field, where all of the big companies felt that they had to have a play.

"A lot of game developers jumped in, a lot of venture capitalists jumped in. It's a dramatically overfunded space, actually, from a VC perspective."

The chain reaction sparked by Facebook's acquisition of Oculus led to the formation of "a consensus" that VR is, "gonna work, it's gonna be huge, it's the next big thing, the next big platform. I've talked to senior executives at Facebook who've told me that it's the next mobile phone. I don't personally share that view."

I love that he made the same comparison to mobile phones that I made, way back in my first post on VR. And, obviously, I agree: at least in its current form, VR is not nearly as transformative a technology as the smartphones. There's just nothing that it's good for, yet; as Lasky puts it, VR is "so nascent that we haven't even figured out what we want to do with it yet."

To upgrade, or not to upgrade... that is the question...

I've been pretty adamant over the last few months about not upgrading to Windows 10, for a number of reasons. Everything from Windows 10's privacy problems, including the fact that the Home version gives you no control over an update cycle that can (and will) reset some of your privacy settings; to the more-than-a-little skeevy practice of putting ads on lock screens and start menus; to the not-so-subtly anti-competitive nature of the Universal Windows Platform; to the fact that many of my peripheral drivers simply won't work with the new OS; all combined with the fact that Windows 7 is still working pretty well for me, thanks very much, and should continue to work for me until 2020... Well, suffice to say that there are lots of reasons to simply stand pat.

The biggest reason, however, at least for me, has been the simple fact of Microsoft's arrogant disregard for their customers: our trust, our good will, our right to have our decisions respected, have all been treated like so much trash by Redmond over the last few months, and I was simply loathe to add another installation to their count. I had no intention of contributing to their success metrics, and zero desire to reward their bad behaviour with anything that might be construed as any measure of approval, tacit or otherwise.

Now, however, the state of play has changed.

EFF attacks DCMA

Now that actual government regulators in France are tackling Microsoft, the Change.org petition asking the Electronic Frontier Foundation to investigate is obviously irrelevant, so I don't mind at all that the EFF is turning to other things... like the Digital Millennium Copyright Act.

From Boing Boing:

The Electronic Frontier Foundation has just filed a lawsuit that challenges the Constitutionality of Section 1201 of the DMCA, the "Digital Rights Management" provision of the law, a notoriously overbroad law that bans activities that bypass or weaken copyright access-control systems, including reconfiguring software-enabled devices (making sure your IoT light-socket will accept third-party lightbulbs; tapping into diagnostic info in your car or tractor to allow an independent party to repair it) and reporting security vulnerabilities in these devices.

EFF is representing two clients in its lawsuit: Andrew "bunnie" Huang, a legendary hardware hacker whose NeTV product lets users put overlays on DRM-restricted digital video signals; and Matthew Green, a heavyweight security researcher at Johns Hopkins who has an NSF grant to investigate medical record systems and whose research plans encompass the security of industrial firewalls and finance-industry "black boxes" used to manage the cryptographic security of billions of financial transactions every day.

[...]

The EFF's complaint, filed minutes ago with the US District Court, is as clear and comprehensible an example of legal writing as you could ask for. It builds on two recent Supreme Court precedents (Golan and Eldred), in which the Supremes stated that the only way to reconcile free speech with copyright's ability to restrict who may utter certain words and expressions is fair use and other exemptions to copyright, which means that laws that don't take fair use into account fail to pass constitutional muster.  

Anyone who spends time watching videos on YouTube is probably familiar with the DMCA woes of its content creators, including Channel Awesome's "Where's the Fair Use?" campaign, and The Jimquisition's "Copyright Deadlock" sort-of-solution to the problem:

 

Concerns about the DMCA's international propagation is also a big part of why people like Michael Geist oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership:

Part of the trouble with the TPP is the remarkable lack of balance within the intellectual property chapter. For example, early drafts of the agreement that featured provisions emphasizing balance and the public domain were opposed by the U.S. and ultimately removed. The lack of balance is also evident in how new rights are treated as mandatory requirements, but user-focused provisions are typically just optional. The same is true with how the TPP addresses IP treaties: countries are required to ratify or accede to as many as nine international IP treaties, but the Marrakesh Treaty for the Visually Impaired, the only treaty concerned with user rights, is buried in a footnote and is not required. The lack of balance is also found in specific substantive provisions. For example, the border measures rules do not include the safeguards contained in Canadian law.

Considering how far-reaching, how utterly stifling, and how easily-abused the DCMA has proven to be, it's really, really heartening to see someone taking the damn thing on. Go get, 'em, EFF!

There's a lot more to find Cory Doctorow's Boing Boing piece, including links to statements from both Huang and Green, and a link to an even more detailed analysis that Doctorow did for the Guardian.

Microsoft's troubles begin in earnest

I figured that this would happen sooner or later, and it seems that today's the day.

From CBC News:

Microsoft's Windows 10 operating system collects "excessive" data on users, violates privacy laws in "numerous" ways and must be fixed within three months, France's national data privacy watchdog announced Wednesday.

The findings could herald decisions expected in the coming months in Canada and other European countries over an operating system that has raised a rash of privacy concerns about how it tracks users.

France's Commission Nationale de l'Informatique et des Libertés (National Commission for Information Technology and Civil Liberties, or CNIL in French) says in a notice posted online today that it has warned Microsoft about the breaches and the software giant could be penalized if it doesn't "cease the excessive collection of users' data and browsing history without their consent."

The agency alleges Microsoft is violating France's data privacy law by:

• Using Windows 10 to track all the programs users install on their system and the amount of time they spend using each one.
• Allowing users to set a relatively weak, four-digit PIN code to access online services, including online payment history, without capping the number of incorrect PIN attempts before someone is locked out of the account.
• Targeting users with Microsoft and third-party advertising based on their browsing history, without prior user consent.
• Tracking and targeting users with browser cookies without informing them or implementing an opt-out.
• Transmitting personal information back to the United States, where Microsoft is headquartered, under the auspices of the EU-U.S. "safe harbour" agreement, despite a decision last October by the European Court of Justice ruling the agreement invalid.

Prompted by media reports and letters from several French political parties, France's data privacy agency began looking into Windows 10 shortly after the operating system launched in July 2015.

The agency is considered one of the toughest in Europe and has already gone after Google over the European Union's "right to be forgotten" rule.

Other European national privacy watchdogs are also looking at Windows 10, as is the Office of the Privacy Commissioner of Canada.

The story is blowing up online, with coverage on Bloomberg, The Register, WinBeta, and ZDNet, to name a few. Naturally, WinBeta has given the most space to Microsoft's response:

“Earlier today Microsoft received a notice from the French data protection authority, the Commission Nationale de l’Informatique et des Libertés or CNIL, raising concerns about certain aspects of Windows 10. The notice gives Microsoft three months to address the issues.

"We built strong privacy protections into Windows 10, and we welcome feedback as we continually work to enhance those protections. We will work closely with the CNIL over the next few months to understand the agency’s concerns fully and to work toward solutions that it will find acceptable.

“The CNIL noted that the Safe Harbor framework is no longer valid for transferring data from European Union to the United States. We fully understand the importance of establishing a sound legal framework for trans-Atlantic data transfers, and that is why Microsoft has been very supportive of the efforts on both side of the Atlantic that led to last week’s adoption of the Privacy Shield.

“As the European Commission observed, Microsoft’s January 2016 Privacy Statement states that the company adheres to the principles of the Safe Harbor Framework. Microsoft has in fact continued to live up to all of its commitments under the Safe Harbor Framework, even as the European and U.S. representatives worked toward the new Privacy Shield.

"As we state in our privacy statement, in addition to the Safe Harbor Framework we rely on a variety of legal mechanisms as the basis for transferring data from Europe, including standard contractual clauses, a data transfer mechanism established by the European Commission and approved by European data protection authorities, to cover data flows from the European Union to the United States.

“Microsoft will release an updated privacy statement next month, and that will say Microsoft intends to adopt the Privacy Shield. We are working now toward meeting the requirements of the Privacy Shield.”

In short, Microsoft is committed to preserving the privacy and security of its customer’s data and has built Windows 10 around protecting that data, and will be working with the CNIL to address their concerns. An updated privacy statement will be coming from Microsoft in August, confirming Microsoft’s intention to adopt the European Commission’s Privacy Shield for which the company has already expressed support.

A couple of things here:

How to lie with statistics: Microsoft edition

Having just announced that they'll fall short of their 1B by 2018 target for Windows 10, Microsoft are now changing their chosen metric, so that their failure will look less like failure.

At least, that's my read on the latest pronouncement from Satya Nadella, as reported by Business Insider:

Microsoft was recently forced to delay its ambitious goal of getting 1 billion devices onto Windows 10 within the next two years, after its collapsing phone business made that an unrealistic milestone.

Instead, CEO Satya Nadella announced Tuesday during the company's quarterly earnings callthat Microsoft will change the way it reports the number of Windows 10 installations (currently at over 350 million), reflecting a shift in how it thinks about the operating system.

"We changed how we will assess progress," Nadella says.

Now, instead of the irregular updates on Windows 10 growth we've been gotten for the last year, mainly at Microsoft conferences and events, Nadella says Microsoft will share monthly active users on the operating system "regularly."

Notably, instead of installations, Microsoft is now tracking monthly active users of Windows 10 — the same kind of metric used to track services like Google's Gmail, which has a billion monthly active users.

And what does "regularly" mean? Who knows? With Windows 10 rapidly approaching its first birthday, maybe it'll become just another line item on the quarterly earnings report.

I guess this means that Nadella & co. have no intention of ever commenting on when they expect to eventually hit that 1B installed target, huh?

No, violent media isn't making your children more violent

People have been trying to blame violent media for all the ills of society since rock & roll was first a thing; if it's not videogames, it's television, or maybe violent movies, or maybe music with explicit lyrics, or maybe... None of the claims have ever held up when scrutinized, but they keep popping up, like weeds, so it wasn't a surprise that the recent streak of violent events in the news prompted this announcement from the American Academy of Pediatrics:

Although there is broad scientific consensus that virtual violence increases aggressive thoughts, feelings, and behaviors, there has been little public action to help mitigate children’s exposure to it.4 In fact, the single broadest legislative action taken by the state of California, which made it illegal to sell video games labeled for mature audiences to minors, was struck down by the US Supreme Court. It is important to note, however, that the ruling was not based on the absence of data linking media violence to aggression. Rather than rule on scientific merit, the Court invoked first-amendment protection for the games insofar as the Court construed their primary purpose to be to confer ideas and social messages.5 Currently, there is no federal authority governing content and ratings, which are issued by the Entertainment Software Ratings Board, compliance with which is optional for industry.

[...]

It is true that an experimental, real-world study that links virtual violence with real-world violence has not been conducted. Such a study will never be undertaken for several reasons, including the fact that actual violence is, fortunately, so rare that an exceedingly large sample size would be needed, and inducing and observing actual violence by manipulating subjects would never pass ethical scrutiny. But experimental linkages between virtual violence and real-world aggression have been found. For example, a recent experimental study conducted in the real world motivated parents to change their children’s media diet by substituting prosocial programs in place of violent ones. This study found decreases in aggression and improvement in overall behavior.8

Emphasis added, naturally; and, yes, that's the American Academy of Pediatrics claiming "broad scientific consensus" on an issue that they then admit, in the same statement, hasn't actually been scientifically studied.

I call bullshit, but I'm far from being the only one. 

The elephant in the room

Microsoft's missed billion-install Windows 10 target continues to reverberate, but I've noticed a subtle shift in today's coverage. Friday's stories were pretty much just reporting on the event itself, and repeating Microsoft's statements explaining the shortfall, but today's commentary seems to be a little more skeptical.

Por ejemplo, take this piece, from ChannelBiz:

Back in April 2015, when Windows 10 was initially released, Microsoft was already facing a dramatic decline in sales of its Lumia devices.

In Microsoft’s financial year 2015, which ran from July 2014 to June 2015, Microsoft sold just shy of 37 million units, a 57 percent drop from the previous year. To compare, Microsoft has sold just 2.3 million units in the first quarter of 2016. But Windows 10 was launched in Microsoft’s third quarter of 2015, so the company knew full well that it shouldn’t account Windows Phone sales for much in its one billion devices predictions.

That leaves us with the elephant in the room – desktops.

As we speak, the desktop market is continuing on its unrecoverable decline. Worldwide PC shipments totalled 64.8 million units in the first quarter of 2016, a 9.6 percent decline from the first quarter of 2015, according to Gartner.

This was the sixth consecutive quarter of PC shipment declines, and the first time since 2007 that shipment volume fell below 65 million units.

Not good news. The first 12 months of Microsoft’s Windows 10 journey always relied upon the free upgrade for existing desktop and laptop users. This accounts for much of Microsoft’s much-applauded 350 million device install base.

Or this piece, from the Inquirer: 

Microsoft has blamed the shortfall on failings in its phone business, but the mobile platform has never had a particularly strong user base and was unlikely to generate a huge part of the total figure.

It is also likely that installations on laptops and other desktop machines have perhaps not been as high as hoped, especially given some of the negative backlash after Microsoft's attempts to enforce the Windows 10 update on all users.

The free update to Windows 10 will expire in a few weeks, which will undoubtedly slow the uptake even more, and is not why the folks at Redmond have had to admit defeat in their goal of one billion devices on Windows 10 by 2018.

Microsoft's PR-fu has been pretty effective for most of #upgradegate, helping them to manage the simmering backlash, but it's looking more and more like the effectiveness of their GWX push was a big part of that -- with their GWX revealed as not only unpleasant, and demonstrably actionable, but also as failing to meet their install base targets, the tide of opinion seems to finally be turning against Redmond's heavy-handed tactics. Everything was permissible, it seems, as long as they were succeeding, but to pull so many underhanded tricks and then fall short may be a bridge too far.

I say "may" because, so far at least, their share price doesn't seem to be suffering much on this news; we'll have to see how well that holds, if the end-of-month market share numbers show little or no movement for Windows 10 (which is my prediction). For now, though, everyones' jobs appear to be safe enough in Redmond.

Confirmed: Windows 10 will not make "1 Billion by 2018" target

From ZDNet:

A little over a year ago, with much fanfare, Microsoft execs drew a line in the sand, predicting that Windows 10 would be installed on 1 billion devices by mid-2018.

But Microsoft officials conceded today, July 15, that they likely won't make that deadline.

My ZDNet colleague Ed Bott noted at the end of a blog post Friday that Microsoft officials still think they can hit the 1 billion Windows 10 market, but that "it's unlikely to happen by 2018 as originally projected".

I asked Microsoft for further clarification and received the following statement from a spokesperson: "Windows 10 is off to the hottest start in history with over 350m monthly active devices, with record customer satisfaction and engagement. We're pleased with our progress to date, but due to the focusing of our phone hardware business, it will take longer than FY18 for us to reach our goal of 1 billion monthly active devices. In the year ahead, we are excited about usage growth coming from commercial deployments and new devices -- and increasing customer delight with Windows."

This is when I'm supposed to talk about how I hate to say, "I told you so," but I'd be lying -- it's actually one of my favourite things. Also: called it.

Microsoft was apparently expecting Windows 10 to get a big bump from the sales of tablets and 2-in-1's (in spite of iPad Pro outselling Surface in that slice of the market) and from phones and other mobile devices (in spite of the fact that nobody wants a Windows phone). I've said all along that the only reason that made sense for pushing Windows 10 so aggressively on PC was if it was failing on other devices, and that's now confirmed, although Microsoft are apparently still hinting at "some kind of Surface Phone type device" launching in 2017.

I wonder if the long-term damage done to their relationship with PC customers, and the loss of trust and goodwill that comes with using deceptive and coercive tactics to push us into using an OS that's loaded with built-in adware and spyware, still looks like such a bright idea in Redmond?

Here's another prediction: July's OS market share numbers will show little to no movement for Windows 10. I think that today's admission that the 1B target is impossible is Microsoft getting out in front of that story before numbers become available, thus abandoning their previous strategy of pretending that they might still make their target. Put a pin in this one, folks, and place your bets.

This is what a death spiral looks like

And now, for something completely different.

From CBC News:

About 200,000 Canadians cancelled their TV subscription last year, but the industry managed to offset that loss by charging their remaining customers more for their service.

That's one of the main takeaways from a Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission report Wednesday that looks at the financial health of Canadian cable television, IPTV and satellite television companies.

The broadcast regulator says the overall number of TV subscribers dipped from 11.4 million in 2014 to 11.2 million in 2015. Upstart Internet Protocol television companies — such as VMedia, Primus, Zazeen and ViaNet TV — saw double-digit increases in their customer numbers during the year compared with the previous year.

But those small increases on the margins weren't enough to offset deeper cuts at conventional cable and satellite television companies.

That's not a sustainable business model, guys. Just saying.

In order Canadian cable TV news, Bell Media is finally planning to give otherwise law-abiding Canadians some reasonable way to watch Game of Thrones without having to pirate it. Kinda.

No, I didn't really read and agree to those terms and conditions... and if you're reading this, then you probably didn't, either.

From Ars Technica:

A recent study concludes what everybody already knows: nobody reads the lengthy terms of service and privacy policies that bombard Internet users every day. Nobody understands them. They're too long, and they often don't make sense.

A study out this month made the point all too clear. Most of the 543 university students involved in the analysis didn't bother to read the terms of service before signing up for a fake social networking site called "NameDrop" that the students believed was real. Those who did glossed over important clauses. The terms of service required them to give up their first born, and if they don't yet have one, they get until 2050 to do so. The privacy policy said that their data would be given to the NSA and employers. Of the few participants who read those clauses, they signed up for the service anyway.

"This brings us to the biggest lie on the Internet, which anecdotally, is known as 'I agree to these terms and conditions,'" the study found.

Yes, those pesky TOS and EULA click-through exercises, making liars of us all.

Seriously, I've long since lost count of the number of these things that I've clicked through, over the years. They really could say anything, absolutely anything. At least now I know just how much company I have.

No, Microsoft's legal troubles are not the result of a Google-led conspiracy

Here's to Windows Report, still lowering the journalistic bar by carrying water for Microsoft:

The tech giant recently lost a Windows 10 upgrade lawsuit and had to pay $10,000 in damages after its upgrade tricks caused a businesswoman to almost lose her business.

NY Attorney General Eric Schneiderman and his team are actively investigating a new Windows 10 forced upgrade case and are gathering evidence and user complaints against Microsoft’s unfair upgrade tactics. The lawmen have been helped by the Rockland County Times newspaper, which forwarded them a series of Windows 10 upgrade complaints.

NY state is not the only state actively investigating user accusations against Microsoft’s Windows 10 upgrade methods as other states are also beginning to actively pursue cases against Microsoft on their residents’ behalf.

This wave of lawsuits against Microsoft has even convinced some of the company’s fans to conclude that these events are being orchestrated by Microsoft’s competition. Google has never hidden its intention of stealing 80% of Microsoft’s business client pool, and many Windows users fear the search engine giant has recently raised the stakes.

You've got to be fucking kidding me.

Speaking of unrealistic expectations

I'm smelling some wishful thinking, from the direction of PC World:

Microsoft will end its free Windows 10 upgrade program on July 29, possibly giving an unexpected boost to PC shipments in the second half this year, according to IDC.

Buyers may opt to buy a new Windows 10 PCs instead of upgrading existing PCs with a paid version of the OS. Many businesses are evaluating Windows 10 and could also upgrade.

OK, so... Microsoft's Windows 10 giveaway is one of the reasons that PC sales are down, because people upgraded their old PCs with the new OS rather than buying new PCs. And they're down significantly:

PC shipments totaled 62.4 million units during the second quarter, declining by 4.5 percent compared to same quarter the previous year, according to an IDC survey released on Monday. IDC originally predicted a decline of 7.4 percent for the quarter.

Some improvements were thanks to gains in U.S. PC shipments, which grew by 4.9 percent during the second quarter.

The quarter’s numbers reverse a sustained double-digit decline in PC shipments dating back to the second quarter last year. PC shipments may be better in the second half, but declines will continue.

“The PC market continues to struggle as we wait for replacements to accelerate, along with some return of spending from phones, tablets, and other IT,” said Loren Loverde, vice president at IDC.

IDC is projecting year-over-year worldwide PC shipments to decline until 2018, but positive growth could return earlier than expected.

That's the very analyst that PC World are quoting, quoted in their own article, saying that PC shipments are going to continue declining until 2018, which is a year and a half after Microsoft stops giving away Windows 10... assuming, of course, that Redmond don't extend that "free" Windows 10 offer. How does that translate into "The end of free Windows 10 upgrades may boost PC sales?"

In what parallel universe does another year and half of declining sales constitute a boost to sales?

Nintendo's unrealistic expectations

Apparently, Nintendo thought that the Wii brand name was worth 100 million units in sales, just on its own. From gamesindustry.biz:

Nintendo president Tatsumi Kimishima commented, "In an internal sales representative meeting, someone projected that we would sell close to 100 million Wii U systems worldwide. The thinking was that because Wii sold well, Wii U would follow suit. I said that, since the Wii had already sold so well, we need to clearly explain the attraction of the Wii U if we are to get beyond that and sell the new system, and that this would be no easy task. I was responsible for selling the Wii U, and I knew what was good about it, so I talked with those in charge of sales about the importance of conveying the attractiveness of Wii U to consumers."

Shigeru Miyamoto still believes in the Wii U, but for now the top brass at Nintendo recognizes that it must do a better job with the NX. "It is true that we are having a hard time with Wii U sales, due to its price and the added fact that tablets are distributed free of charge in the market. I do think Wii U continues to be attractive as a media device that changes life in the living room. A similar challenge continues with NX," Miyamoto noted.

You know, the more I hear them talk about it, the more convinced I become that Nintendo still have no idea what people liked about the Wii. At all.

Not so new, and mostly static

One of the single biggest problems with Windows Phone was its lack of an app ecosystem. It was a classic chicken-and-egg problem: with no Windows Phone users, there was no market for apps, and thus nobody developing apps for the platform; with no apps for the platform, there was very little reason for anyone to want a Windows Phone, especially since most potential customers would be switching away from Android or iOS, both of which were app-rich.

This was one of the problems that Windows 10, and the Universal Windows Platform that sits at its core, were supposed to solve. UWP was supposed to make developing mobile apps for Windows easier than ever, leading to a flood of new, exciting apps for Windows 10 Mobile customers. Basically, the plan was that Microsoft would leverage the PC OS market share they already had, gaining mobile OS market share that they hadn't been able to earn.

So far, it doesn't seem to be going well. From NeoWin:

And today this issue was brought to the forefront once again, by author and Microsoft MVP Matt Lacey. He analyzed the way the Windows 10 Store charts different apps over time. Looking at a period of four months, from March 1st to June 30th, Lacey took a close look at the first page of results in the “New and Rising” category, a chart that should hold the interest of users and be a target for developers.

Unfortunately, his findings were by no means encouraging. According to his report, over 122 days, the chart only saw new entries on 100 days. During that time there were 202 new entries in the chart, though 65 of those were apps that were entered up to 3 or 4 times.

Over 4 months Lacey found there were a total of 209 different apps listed in the “New and Rising” chart, with those hitting the top of the chart staying there for an average of 40 days.

All in all, this means out of 72 apps that were there at the start of the period, 62 were still there at the end, after 122 days.

Ouch.

"Play Anywhere" not exactly as originally advertised

From MS Power User:

We reported recently that Microsoft has in a recent blog post claimed “Every new title published from Microsoft Studios will support Xbox Play Anywhere” and then soon after changed this to “Every new title published from Microsoft Studios that we showed onstage at E3 this year will support Xbox Play Anywhere.”

[...]

Now in a statement to PCGamesn.com Microsoft has issues a brief admission and apology, stating:

“When we unveiled Xbox Play Anywhere, we said that every new Microsoft Studios title shown at the Xbox E3 2016 Briefing will support Xbox Play Anywhere,” a Microsoft spokesperson tells us. “We understand that a recent blog post didn’t specify that the only Microsoft Studios titles we’ve confirmed to date as Xbox Play Anywhere were shown at the E3 2016 Xbox briefing.

“We’ve updated the blog post and apologise for any confusion.”

So, rather than making all new releases available on Windows 10, as Microsoft had clearly stated to build the hype, Play Anywhere will now only make selected titles available via the Windows Store. All you PC gamers who switched to Win10, hoping to get access to a constant stream of XBox One games that aren't getting PC ports... you've been had. Surprise!

At least they had decency to apologize, this time around. It will interesting to see if this has any impact on the popularity of Windows 10 and the Windows Store with PC gamers.

Well, that was short-lived

So much for moving on...

From the Rockland County Times:

In the wake of this column’s charges of “FORCED” imposition by Microsoft of Windows 10 on the operating systems of the computers of many of their customers, Attorney-General Eric Schneiderman is actively pursuing the cases of affected Microsoft customers for their alleged damages caused by the company in FORCING or DECEIVING them into accepting this upgrade.

In a late Tuesday afternoon telephone call made to this writer by Rachel Casey of the New York State Attorney-General’s Bureau of Internet and Technology, which investigates cases of INTERNET FRAUD, the Rockland County Times was praised for its unique efforts to reach out to the affected Microsoft customers and enable them to e-mail their complaints to us which, in turn, would be forwarded in one group to her for consideration of their possible damages.

I had a feeling that Microsoft's legal troubles over #upgradegate were just beginning. It looks like this gift will keep on giving for a long time yet, as officials in various jurisdictions finally catch up to what's been going on for months.

The value of low expectations

It just hit me: it's now been an entire week since Microsoft last screwed up in any major way. Mazel tov!

Online articles are still have plenty of bad to offer, of course; the #upgradegate narrative of Redmond's GWX tactics is still echoing across sites that are only now catching up to a story that's been unfolding for months, mainly because the Associated Press has started reporting on criticism of Microsoft, rather than simply reprinting Redmond's press releases. Teri Goldstein’s $10,000 win is still being mentioned as if it had happened yesterday, rather than having first been reported weeks ago. The stink of what Microsoft has done will continue to linger in Windows 10's wake for a long time to come.

Still, on balance, it looks like Microsoft may have done just enough to weather the storm. With #upgradegate stories being replaced with hype for the upcoming Anniversary Update's features, Redmond may have managed to manage their backlash, for now. I await the end-of-July market share numbers with some ineterest, though; it'll be interesting to see if Windows 7 posts a third straight monthly market share increase, or if Linux can repeat last month's growth, even while Windows 10 manages to squeeze out another percentage point from Windows 8 and XP users.

In the meantime, though, I think I can finally move on to other things.

An offer you can refuse

OK, I'll admit it: I was just tickled by the title of this PC World piece:

The clock is ticking, folks. If you want to upgrade to Windows 10 for free, you only have until July 29, 2016 to do so. And most people should! Windows 10 is the best Windows yet, chock full of handy new features, sleek under-the-hood improvements, and headache-killing extras.

But it’s not for everybody. There are some very real, very valid reasons not to upgrade to Windows 10.

If you’re on the fence about whether to accept or reject Microsoft’s freebie, read on for some concrete justifications for staying put.

Their list of reasons?

1. No Windows Media Center or DVD support
2. No desktop gadgets or widgets
3. No OneDrive placeholders
4. No control over Windows Updates
5. Privacy concerns
6. Ads and more ads
7. Microsoft's aggressive upgrade tactics
8. Software compatibility
9. Hardware compatibility
10. Ain't broke, don't fix it

I'm not using OneDrive for anything, or any desktop gadgets or widgets, but I find it easy to agree with all the rest of these. In fact, the last one (highlighted in bold), were all included in the list that I posted in June, although I think I'd combined the advertising and privacy issues into a single bullet point.

Reasons not to upgrade to Windows 10

Back in June, I posted my reasons for not upgrading to Windows 10. Apparently, I'm not the only one thinking along these lines, because TechRepublic posted their own five reasons today.

Their list is a little different than mine, although it includes many of the same points, but I really liked the way they broke down the privacy concerns:

By default Windows 10 collects more data than many users are comfortable with. This includes information about how Windows and Windows apps are used, what you type, your contacts, your location, calendar appointments and more. If the virtual assistant Cortana is enabled, this data extends to web browsing history, voice commands and even more information about your activity.

Users of Home and Pro versions of Windows 10 can only reduce this data collection to the "Basic" level. On this setting, Windows 10 collects information about security settings, quality-related info (such as crashes and hangs), and application compatibility. Microsoft describes this information as being essential for maintaining and improving the quality of Windows 10 and says that only "anonymous identifiers" are transmitted.

However, questions remain about the information that Windows 10 sends back to Microsoft, even when you turn the data gathering settings down a minimum. Tech website Arstechnica found that even with the virtual assistant Cortana disabled, Windows 10 sends a request to www.bing.com that appears to contain a random machine ID that persists across reboots.

Similarly, even when Microsoft OneDrive cloud storage was disabled and Windows 10 was not tied to a Microsoft account, the OS still seemed to be sending information to a server connected to OneDrive. While Microsoft stressed there is no query or search data being sent, Arstechnica queried the inclusion of a machine ID.

ZDNet's Ed Bott has said the very basic telemetry data collected by Microsoft is anonymized and doesn't reveal anything more than very high-level information along the lines of an unidentified Windows 10 user ran a particular app for half an hour.
However, for some users, even the gathering of anonymized usage data is more than they're willing to put up with.

Today in GWX

Here's a quick roundup of the state of play for Microsoft's GWX campaign.

The full-screen nag screen is getting a lot of unflattering press coverage, like this Trusted Reviews piece:

Just when you thought Microsoft couldn't get any more irritatingly pushy with its Windows 10 upgrade system, it has.

Microsoft has received considerable stick in recent months for its use of sneaky tricks to get people to upgrade from Windows 7 and Windows 8.1. By upgrading Windows 10 to a "Recommended" update, it meant that users had to manually change the schedule or cancel it, or else face an automatic installation.

Amazingly, Microsoft has just managed to make Windows 10 upgrade notifications even more obnoxious.

With the free Windows 10 upgrade offer set to expire on July 29, Microsoft is implementing full screen notifications in a bid to push those upgrades through. The following screen will appear for a subset of users:

The full-screen nag screen hasn't stopped people from noticing Windows 7's resurgence, though, like this Alphr piece:

In one final push before the free upgrade window closes – in an effort to close in on the Windows 10 user target of one billion – Microsoft has now started providing its obstinate Windows 7 and 8 refusers full-screen adverts begging them to upgrade. This is very much the software equivalent of throwing your goalkeeper up for a corner in the 93rd minute when you’re 1-0 down.

[...]

It has kind of worked. According to Net Analytics, Windows 10 market share has gone from 0.39% last July (which is understandable when it only launched on the 29th) to 19.14% today.

The trouble is that Windows 7, a seven-year-old operating system, is still the top dog, with 49.05%. While that has shrunk from 60.73% in the same period, Net Analytics has reported a mini-resurgence for the elderly OS. In April it was on 47.82%, in May it was 48.57% and today – as mentioned – it’s 49.05%. That’s a trend Microsoft won’t be happy to see.

But wait... it get worse.

I'm not sure this is such a good idea

From the Daily Herald:

The Windows 10 Anniversary update adds a few features, including a major change to the company's voice assistant, Cortana. Users will now be able to ask Cortana for help even when their devices are locked, extending the assistant's usefulness and matching competitors. You won't have to be actively using your computer, phone or tablet to set reminders or check traffic.

Cortana is a cloud-based service, which calls out to online servers for everything. If you want to search your locally stored files and data, for example, Cortana does that using the cloud. This is already a privacy and security concern. So.... how does it help with either privacy or security, exactly, to let Cortana bypass your lock screen and perform e.g. a voice-commanded search?

If this is very limited, then maybe it's OK, but I see this being open to a lot of abuse. To me, this perfectly highlights one of the bigger problems with Windows 10: every useful feature comes with a privacy and security downside, which rather undermines the appeal of an OS that's billed as the most secure that Microsoft has ever made.

One more point about Windows 10's market share growth

Amidst Microsoft's PR offensive, with Redmond claiming that Windows 10's 19.14% PC market share is some kind of record, it may be helpful to put things in perspective.

If you exclude non-Windows operating systems, Windows 10 is now 21.32% of the Windows market, a mark it took 11 months to hit. And while that may look like a lot when compared to previous versions of Windows, you need to remember that previous versions of Windows were not being given away. Microsoft had never given away a new OS prior to this one, which makes sense when you remember that they are primarily a software company. Windows and Office are their two main breadwinners.

Comparing Win10's adoption rate to that of previous versions of Windows is like comparing bowling balls to tennis balls. Yes, they're all balls, and they're all used for sports, but if you try to play tennis with bowling balls (or vice versa) you'll figure out pretty damn quickly that they're fundamentally different things.

In order to get a meaningful comparison, you'd need to compare Windows 10's adoption rate to that of another OS that gives new versions away. Fortunately, there is one: Apple's OS X.