July 04, 2016

Today in GWX

Here's a quick roundup of the state of play for Microsoft's GWX campaign.

The full-screen nag screen is getting a lot of unflattering press coverage, like this Trusted Reviews piece:
Just when you thought Microsoft couldn't get any more irritatingly pushy with its Windows 10 upgrade system, it has.
Microsoft has received considerable stick in recent months for its use of sneaky tricks to get people to upgrade from Windows 7 and Windows 8.1. By upgrading Windows 10 to a "Recommended" update, it meant that users had to manually change the schedule or cancel it, or else face an automatic installation.
Amazingly, Microsoft has just managed to make Windows 10 upgrade notifications even more obnoxious.
With the free Windows 10 upgrade offer set to expire on July 29, Microsoft is implementing full screen notifications in a bid to push those upgrades through. The following screen will appear for a subset of users:
windows 10
The full-screen nag screen hasn't stopped people from noticing Windows 7's resurgence, though, like this Alphr piece:
In one final push before the free upgrade window closes – in an effort to close in on the Windows 10 user target of one billion – Microsoft has now started providing its obstinate Windows 7 and 8 refusers full-screen adverts begging them to upgrade. This is very much the software equivalent of throwing your goalkeeper up for a corner in the 93rd minute when you’re 1-0 down.
[...]
It has kind of worked. According to Net Analytics, Windows 10 market share has gone from 0.39% last July (which is understandable when it only launched on the 29th) to 19.14% today.
The trouble is that Windows 7, a seven-year-old operating system, is still the top dog, with 49.05%. While that has shrunk from 60.73% in the same period, Net Analytics has reported a mini-resurgence for the elderly OS. In April it was on 47.82%, in May it was 48.57% and today – as mentioned – it’s 49.05%. That’s a trend Microsoft won’t be happy to see.
But wait... it get worse.

The discovery of "UpgradeSubscription.exe" is causing even more headaches for Redmond. ZDNet reported this late last week, but other sites are also picking up on it, and Microsoft's protestations of innocence don't seem to be working. Plus, if you're Microsoft, you're probably not to happy to have to spend PR bandwidth on this from Fudzilla:
Microsoft watcher Ed Bott found a file buried within the System32 folder of build 14376 called UpgradeSubscription.exe. Within this system file's properties, it is described as the Windows Upgrade to Subscription Tool.
This confirmed theories that Microsoft will introduce a number of paid subscription plans for PC owners who want to get the latest operating system updates.Microsoft previously shifted its Office applications – including Word, Excel, PowerPoint, OneNote, Outlook, Publisher, and Access – to a monthly subscription model with the introduction of Office 365.
However Redmond has rushed to deny the theory. It said that the tool helps to manage certain volume licensing upgrades from Windows 10 Pro Anniversary Update to Windows 10 Enterprise. This binary file is not associated with the free consumer upgrade offering nor is it applicable to consumer Windows editions.
At the end of the month Microsoft will charge you $119 for a full version of Windows 10 Home and Windows 10 Pro will set you back $199. Microsoft wants to get its software on a billion marchines within the next two years. It might have difficulty if it expects uses to payup $119.

Plenty of coverage of this one, too, from mainstream news outlets like Express.co.uk, to pro-Redmond sites like BetaNews and WinBeta.

In other bad news, Windows 10 users have noticed that Microsoft killed Messaging Everywhere, and they're not happy about it. From Softpedia:
Microsoft has decided to hold back the release of the Messaging Everywhere feature for Windows 10, explaining that it now wants to make it part of the Skype app, but this change doesn’t seem to be very well received by the Windows community.
Posts in the Windows Feedback app call for Microsoft to revert its decision and bring back Messaging Everywhere in Windows 10 before the Anniversary Update (also known as Redstone) reaches RTM and goes live to users on August 2.
At this point, the Feedback app is invaded by requests to reintroduce Messaging Everywhere in the operating system, and they probably total thousands of votes.
There is one ray of sunshine, though. The one user subculture that seems to be switching to Windows 10 with relatively little fuss is gamers -- or, at least, Steam users. From Hexus:
Windows 10 was already the number one platform on Steam. That milestone was passed back in April when it toppled Windows 7 from the pedastal. In the latest Steam Hardware and Software Survey Windows 10 cements its position, with a 3.4 per cent gain, and is in fact the only OS version to experience any growth at all.
Looking at the figures from the most recent month, Windows 10 holds 44.5 per cent of the Steam user base. The next most popular OS, Windows 7, is installed on about 37 per cent of Steam user machines - but that number is down over 2 per cent from the previous month. With the free Windows 10 upgrade deadline looming it will be interesting to see the OS landscape change shown in the next survey.
This seems to be the only place where Windows 10 is gaining, and Windows 7 isn't; whether these Steam users are also embracing the Windows Store is anyone's guess, at this point, although Steam users are a pretty loyal bunch, and Universal Windows App versions of games have been plagued with technical issues, so it seems unlikely. It would be interesting to find out why Windows gamers are switching faster than Windows users in general, though. AAA game developers and publishers are infamous for shitting on their customers, and gamers may just be conditioned to simply go along anyway, in a kind of Stockholm syndrome.

The other bit of good(ish) news for Microsoft is that Linux is down among Steam users. From PC Perspective:
The current split of Steam users, according to the Steam Hardware Survey, is 95.5% for Windows, 3.6% for Mac OSX, and 0.8% for Linux. Phoronix reports that this does not count SteamOS, and there might be other “inaccuracies” with the survey, but the Linux figures are 0.04% less than they were before (a relative drop of about 4.8%).
Windows users are up, and Mac OSX is flat.
A 4.8% drop in a month isn't promising, but it's also not too concerning. If you were intending to target a platform with 0.8% marketshare, then you can benefit from the long shelf life that Linux provides. It's not like a publisher is counting on that platform to reach two-week launch window sales figures. We'll see if the pendulum will swing back in the future, especially if Valve creates compelling, new, first-party content for Linux. They seem to be waiting to put their full weight behind it.
VALVe haven't pushed SteamOS or the Steam Machine platform very hard, after its initial launch last year, and they're famously non-communicative so it's anyone's guess if they'll start to do so. Sales of the latest console generation are lagging behind where the last console generation was at this same point in the cycle, so there's still time for Steam Machine to make some gains if VALVe make an effort; of course, those same tepid console sales may just be why they haven't bothered to spend the time or money pushing Steam Machine as a platform.

To recap, it looks like Redmond is lagging well behind where they'd planned to be, coming up on Windows 10's first anniversary, and are struggling to manage the lack of trust that's resulted from their overly aggressive GWX tactics over the last six months. It's never good when your PR department has to spend time knocking down conspiracy theories about the Windows 10 Subscription executable that you've buried in a recent update, rather than being able to hype the cool features of your upcoming anniversary patch. The only group of users that seems willing to go along with their plans is one that's become desensitized to corporate bad behaviour, and even they may not be using the Windows Store which forms such a large part of those plans; and the Windows 7 and Linux user bases are growing, not shrinking.