Nintendo's unrealistic expectations

Apparently, Nintendo thought that the Wii brand name was worth 100 million units in sales, just on its own. From gamesindustry.biz:

Nintendo president Tatsumi Kimishima commented, "In an internal sales representative meeting, someone projected that we would sell close to 100 million Wii U systems worldwide. The thinking was that because Wii sold well, Wii U would follow suit. I said that, since the Wii had already sold so well, we need to clearly explain the attraction of the Wii U if we are to get beyond that and sell the new system, and that this would be no easy task. I was responsible for selling the Wii U, and I knew what was good about it, so I talked with those in charge of sales about the importance of conveying the attractiveness of Wii U to consumers."

Shigeru Miyamoto still believes in the Wii U, but for now the top brass at Nintendo recognizes that it must do a better job with the NX. "It is true that we are having a hard time with Wii U sales, due to its price and the added fact that tablets are distributed free of charge in the market. I do think Wii U continues to be attractive as a media device that changes life in the living room. A similar challenge continues with NX," Miyamoto noted.

You know, the more I hear them talk about it, the more convinced I become that Nintendo still have no idea what people liked about the Wii. At all.

The Wii was a huge hit with people who, for the most part, didn't play video games before the Wii's release. That included the very young, who hadn't had time yet to start gaming, and whose undersized hands would have trouble with the ergonomics of a standard gamepad in any event; and the very old, for whom videogames were simply not something they'd ever experienced or wanted to experience, for whom the complexity of modern videogames and their controls was a barrier to entry.

I mean, seriously... just look at the XBOne's controller:

Wikipedia describes the controller thusly:

A standard [emphasis added] Xbox One controller features ten digital buttons, a syncing button, two analog triggers, two analog sticks and a digital D-pad. The right face of the controller features four digital actions buttons; a green "A" button, red "B" button, blue "X" button, and amber "Y" button. The lower right houses the right analog stick, in lower left is a digital D-pad and on the left face is the left analog stick. Both analog sticks can also be "clicked in" to activate a digital button beneath. In the center of the controller face are digital "View", "Menu" and "Guide" buttons. The "Guide" button is labelled with the Xbox logo, and is used to turn on the console/controller and to access the Dashboard. Unlike the Xbox 360 controller, the Xbox One controller features a white, glowing Xbox logo on its guide button and does not feature the "ring of light". The left and right "shoulders" each feature a digital shoulder button, or "bumper", and an analog trigger.

The elite controller (pictured) is built better and looks cooler, with e.g. "hair trigger locks" that allow precise calibration of the triggers, but otherwise who cares, goddammit, look at that thing. Pretend for a second that you're 70 years old, and haven't looked at a game console since Atari's 2600... when your kids played with one. Can you understand why the gaming industry was having trouble selling games to people in this demographic?

Now look at the Nintendo Wii's controller: 

Can you see the difference? Because Nintendo apparently can't.

The Wiimote wasn't perfect. It wasn't as always precise as one might want; more complicated games required you to accessorize with the nunchuk: 

None of that mattered, though. All that mattered is that the Wiimote was simple.

Much like the PC's mouse, which was designed to take natural, familiar motions and turn them into computer commands, Wiimote was easy and intuitive to use -- intuitive enough that someone with no prior experience could learn how to use the device in seconds. Suddenly, grandparents and their grandchildren could play family-friendly games, together, using tools that they could both learn to use on the spot. And they loved it, to the tune of over 100 million units sold.

Now, look at the Wii-U's controller:

Again, here's how Wikipedia describes this mess:

The GamePad's primary feature is its 6.2 in (16 cm), FWVGA (854x480), resistive touchscreen display, which can be controlled with either fingers or an included stylus. The screen can be used as a supplement to gameplay to provide additional functionality that can be controlled using the screen, or to stream gameplay from the console in lieu of a television display (Off-TV Play). The controller also features a front-facing camera (usable for video chat), dual analog sticks, nine-axis motion detection via a three-axis accelerometer, three-axis gyroscope and a three-axis magnetometer, rumble support,[9] and an infrared array that can emulate the Wii Sensor Bar.[4] The GamePad also supports NFC, which allows developers to create figurines(such as Nintendo's Amiibo figures) or cards that can wirelessly interact with the controller, and allow users to make contactless credit card transactions with compatible cards.[10] In a special presentation preceding E3 2012, Nintendo unveiled more details about the GamePad; including its ability to be used as a remote control for a television with the Nintendo TVii app, and the ability to send handwritten messages and other content.[2]

At this point, it bears mentioning that Nintendo themselves don't know what the fuck to do with all of this shit. How is an average gamer supposed to figure it out, let alone a casual one? And the Wii-U was aimed at Wii players, who were the very image of casual -- the Wii was a huge success because it appealed to people who weren't already gaming, not because it packed more innovation into a tiny package than anyone wanted, or asked for, or could use.

Also, the shape of that thing is horrible. Seriously, who's in charge of ergonomics at Nintendo?

The Wii-U had all the complexity of a PS4 or XBox One, but with none of the power... and the PS4 and XBOne are already underpowered, compared to comparably-priced gaming PCs. The underpowered Wii succeeded anyway, because power wasn't the point; simplicity was. Without that simplicity, though, you'd damn well better be bringing the teraflops, and the Wii-U didn't.

It's really not a mystery, is it? Except, apparently, to Shigeru Miyamoto, who's still convinced that the Wii-U's sales were only suffering because of the iPad:

"It is true that we are having a hard time with Wii U sales, due to its price and the added fact that tablets are distributed free of charge in the market. I do think Wii U continues to be attractive as a media device that changes life in the living room. A similar challenge continues with NX," Miyamoto noted.

No! Just... no.

The Wii-U's problem wasn't its price point. The Wii-U's problem was that it provided nothing that anyone wanted. It didn't have enough power to make proper use of all those innovative features, or to appeal to experienced gamers who would appreciate the complex control scheme; and it wasn't simple enough to appeal to people who comprise the market for less-demanding games.

Nintendo are now talking about VR possibly being a major feature of NX, but VR has brutal technical requirements, and a ton of other issues that would make it very risky move for a company whose last console failed so miserably. What Nintendo's customers wanted was a Wii with power of a modern system, and better precision in its controls; Nintendo, however, is fixated on reinventing the wheel every damn time they leave the driveway. 

Many Nintendo fans are eagerly awaiting details on the NX, but at this point, I would strongly recommend that they moderate their expectations. To me, all signs are pointing in the direction of another failure.