Confirmed: Windows 10 will not make "1 Billion by 2018" target

From ZDNet:

A little over a year ago, with much fanfare, Microsoft execs drew a line in the sand, predicting that Windows 10 would be installed on 1 billion devices by mid-2018.

But Microsoft officials conceded today, July 15, that they likely won't make that deadline.

My ZDNet colleague Ed Bott noted at the end of a blog post Friday that Microsoft officials still think they can hit the 1 billion Windows 10 market, but that "it's unlikely to happen by 2018 as originally projected".

I asked Microsoft for further clarification and received the following statement from a spokesperson: "Windows 10 is off to the hottest start in history with over 350m monthly active devices, with record customer satisfaction and engagement. We're pleased with our progress to date, but due to the focusing of our phone hardware business, it will take longer than FY18 for us to reach our goal of 1 billion monthly active devices. In the year ahead, we are excited about usage growth coming from commercial deployments and new devices -- and increasing customer delight with Windows."

This is when I'm supposed to talk about how I hate to say, "I told you so," but I'd be lying -- it's actually one of my favourite things. Also: called it.

Microsoft was apparently expecting Windows 10 to get a big bump from the sales of tablets and 2-in-1's (in spite of iPad Pro outselling Surface in that slice of the market) and from phones and other mobile devices (in spite of the fact that nobody wants a Windows phone). I've said all along that the only reason that made sense for pushing Windows 10 so aggressively on PC was if it was failing on other devices, and that's now confirmed, although Microsoft are apparently still hinting at "some kind of Surface Phone type device" launching in 2017.

I wonder if the long-term damage done to their relationship with PC customers, and the loss of trust and goodwill that comes with using deceptive and coercive tactics to push us into using an OS that's loaded with built-in adware and spyware, still looks like such a bright idea in Redmond?

Here's another prediction: July's OS market share numbers will show little to no movement for Windows 10. I think that today's admission that the 1B target is impossible is Microsoft getting out in front of that story before numbers become available, thus abandoning their previous strategy of pretending that they might still make their target. Put a pin in this one, folks, and place your bets.
Unlike other Windows 10 stories, this one seems to be getting a lot of traction, too, and quickly.

Por ejemplo, The Register:

Windows 10 a failure by Microsoft's own metric – it won't hit one billion devices by mid-2018

All that nagware hasn't worked

 Or, PC Mag:

Microsoft: So, We Might Not Hit 1B Windows 10 Installations
Now that Windows Phone is dead, Microsoft isn't likely going to hit its goal of one billion installations in three years.

Or, TechSpot:

Microsoft waves the white flag, says it won't hit Windows 10 installation goal on time

Or, Marketwatch:

Microsoft Corp. won't hit its target of one billion Windows 10 devices in use by June 2018, the company said Friday. It blamed the shift on its decision to scale back from the business of making smartphones that would have run Windows 10. It didn't propose a new date for meeting the one billion benchmark.

Yes, the expected Windows-focused outlets like Computerworld and PC World have picked up the story, but so has Apple Insider, who normally focus on OS X and iOS; Consumerist, Nasdaq, and the Wall Street Journal have also picked up the story, broadening its reach beyond tech-focused sites. Even Beta News has coverage, including this priceless pic:

Upgradegate has been a bad news story for Microsoft for months already, and the legal costs haven't even begun to mount yet, but the one fig leaf that they were holding on to was that, ugly as it was, it was working. Except that wasn't true, either, apparently, and they must have known it wasn't working for months.

How about another prediction? Heads will roll. The question is not whether some will lose their jobs over this; the questions are, how many? who? and when?

GG, Microsoft. GG.