Windows' incredible shrinking usage share

Most of the attention on desktop OS usage share has been the horse race between Windows 7 and Windows 10. The question to which everybody wants to know the answer is always, "When will Windows 10 finally overtake Windows 7?"

The prediction, for several Novembers running now, has been next November, and November 1st has once more arrived with W7 still holding on to a slim lead over its newer "rival" OS, as reported by Wayne Williams at Betanews:

In October, Windows 10 had edged closer to Windows 7, and I predicted that NetMarketShare would finally see Windows 10 emerge victorious in November.

It didn’t.

Again, this has now happened for at least three consecutive Novembers, and is hardly news. Williams has actually buried the lede at bit, though, because the really interesting bit is what comes next:

In fact, in November Windows 10 actually lost some usage share, dropping 0.14 percentage points. That puts it on 38.1 4 percent, down from the 38.28 percent high in October.

The gap between the two operating systems still narrowed though, as Windows 7 also lost share, going from 39.35 percent to 38.89 percent, a fall of 0.46 percentage points.

Wait, what? Both Windows versions managed to lose market share last month? I mean, yes, Microsoft has had a couple of months of bad news with update 1809's issues, but even so, how the fuck does this happen?

Well, the short answer is that Windows lost overall market share last month, dropping from 87.27% to 87.03%. But even that's not the end of the story; looking back at overall market share numbers for the last six months, we see a pattern emerge:

Microsoft's ongoing struggles with QA and Edge

After a terrible month of QA issues with Windows 10's 1809 update, and following revelations that those issues aren't actually over yet, even after 1809's re-release, comes news that Microsoft's other flagship product has similar issues. As reported by betanews:

Microsoft's update procedure for Windows 10 has been a little, er, wobbly of late. The Windows 10 October 2018 Update proved so problematic that it had to pulled, and even the re-released version is far from perfect.

Now it seems the cancer is spreading to Office. Having released a series of updates for Office 2010, 2013 and 2016 as part of this month's Patch Tuesday, Microsoft has now pulled two of them and advised sysadmins to uninstall the updates if they have already been installed.

In both instances -- KB4461522 and KB2863821 -- Microsoft says that the problematic updates can lead to application crashes. While this is not as serious a problem as, say, data loss, it does little to quieten the fears that have been voiced about the quality control Microsoft has over its updates.

So, the bad news is that Microsoft's attempts to reassure consumers and Enterprise customers that their quality assurance procedures really are up to the challenge of delivering software-as-a-service seem to be failing. What's the good news?

Apparently, the good news is that Edge has failed so hard that Microsoft is now collaborating with Google and Qualcomm to bring the Chrome browser to Windows 10's ARM version. Yes, really.

Windows 10's 1809 update is still broken

I feel a facepalm coming on. As reported by ZDNet:

Microsoft this week rereleased the Windows 10 October 2018 Update, version 1809, after fixing its data-deletion mess. But the new build still has an old mapped-drives bug that's causing headaches for admins.

Within days of Microsoft's first release of Windows 10 1809 at the beginning of October, IT pros noticed that Windows File Explorer indicated that mapped network drives appeared to be broken. [...] Microsoft says it is working on a resolution but warns admins not to expect a fix until "the 2019 timeframe".

It's important to note that this is not a new bug; apparently it was a known issue before 1809's original release, and just not patched by MS in the five weeks between pulling and rereleasing the update. There are also compatibility issues between the 1809 update and Trend Micro's business security software, and a third issue that affects machines with Radeon HD 2000 or HD 4000 video cards.

Microsoft has temporarily blocked the update for users with affected soft- and/or hardware (at Trend Micro's request, in the former case), but the careless damage has already been done. IT pro Susan Bradley summed up the situation pretty well, in this quote from the ZDNet piece:

"I cannot believe -- well, I guess in this era of Microsoft I can believe -- that Microsoft would release an update that would impact their customer base like this. Yes, it's documented, yes there are 'workarounds', but there are possibilities that line-of-business applications will not be happy with these solutions given," wrote Bradley.

Affected non-business consumers probably won't be happy, either, and headlines like, "FAIL!!! Windows 10 October Update (1809) Still Has Multiple Flaws," are probably not what Microsoft was hoping to see within days of claiming that their testing regimen and quality control were still top-notch. That claim, incidentally, is looking more ridiculous with each passing day. Apparently MS have decided that they'd like to take a few more lumps, please, before actually addressing their QA issues.

Fortunately for Microsoft, the rereleased 1809 update wasn't being rolled out as aggressively as 1803; most users won't be offered the update until 2019 anyway, and it will be months after that before the update is pronounce ready for business, so the PR damage from this latest snafu might not be too severe.

It will be interesting to see if this latest example of Microsoft's inability to reliably deliver a product that works to consumers will cause any further slowdown in Windows 10's adoption rate. Personally, I can't wait to see the OS usage share numbers at the end of November.

Hey, Microsoft... you do know that can stop hitting yourself any old time, now. Right?

1809 update finally released by Microsoft, along with empty promises of future change

We always knew it would come eventually; the only remaining question was the timing of the thing. Let's start with the details, as reported by ZDNet:

Microsoft has resumed the rollout of Windows 10 version 1809. The re-release of the so-called October 2018 Update comes more than five weeks after the company pulled the original installation files from its download servers and stopped its scheduled delivery through Windows Update just days after its initial debut on Oct. 2.

In a blog post, Microsoft's John Cable, the director of Program Management for Windows Servicing and Delivery, says the data-destroying bug that triggered that unprecedented decision, as well as other quality issues that emerged during the unscheduled hiatus, have been "thoroughly investigated and resolved."

OK, this is just embarrassing

Offered without any ado... this report, from Softpedia:

Microsoft has just released a free AV1 video codec for Windows 10 devices, and users can download it right now from the Microsoft Store.

Available as part of an early beta program, the codec is available for PCs, Surface Hub, and HoloLens, as Microsoft itself explained in the Store.

Oddly enough, the codec can only be installed on devices running Windows 10 October 2018 Update, which is no longer up for grabs after Microsoft pulled it last month. The October update came with several major bugs, including an issue that could have caused the removal of user files stored in libraries.

So.... any idea when your October 2018 update will actually be available, there, Microsoft? You know, just in case people want to actually use this new AV1 codec that you've just released for that same update, knowing that it's not actually available to Windows 10 users?

GG, Microsoft. GG.

Meanwhile, back in Windows 10

With Windows 10's 1809 update still M.I.A., and having had a very bad month in October, Microsoft were likely hoping to put the worst of their WaaS woes behind them. They've been busy hyping the latest 19H1 update's build and its features, and saying nothing at all about the ill-fated 1809 update, which is looking more and more like it also won't release until the first half of 2019.

But the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry, and Microsoft's plans for Windows-as-a-Service are increasingly looking like they were poorly laid from the very start, so it should surprise nobody that Windows 10 has another issue. And, wow, is is a doozy, as reported by Gordon Kelly at Forbes:

Spotted by The Register, Microsoft’s activation servers have started accidentally downgrading expensive Windows 10 Pro systems into cheaper Windows 10 Home PCs, then invalidating their licences. Needless to say, that's a nasty financial hit (Home is $119, Pro is $199) and affected users are furious.

[...]

And it’s not just upgraders being affected. Problems with automated Windows 10 Home downgrades are being reported with fresh installs on different Windows Pro versions as well.

“Same issue on Dell computers running Windows 10 Pro 1803 that we just bought. Need to deploy to clients but they won't activate,” explained another user on Reddit.
Microsoft’s response? It’s not great.

On its official Answers page, Microsoft warns there is a “temporary issue” with the company’s activation server but has not disclosed any further details. As for users calling Microsoft’s call centres, the response is to simply wait for a fix.

Cue the expensive class-action lawsuits in 3... 2... 1...

Microsoft's "fixed" 1809 update has another data-deleting bug

Have your facepalm ready, and then read this reporting from Jason Evangelho at Forbes:

Apparently I'm not done beating this dead horse yet. That's because yet another file-deleting bug has surfaced in Microsoft's Windows 10 Build 1809 update. The same update Microsoft pulled from public circulation because it was wiping entire user folders from existence. The new bug centers around Microsoft's Unzip application, and seems to present itself in two distinct forms.

There are entirely too many situations where this could lead to data loss with varying degrees of severity. Here's how one Reddit user describes the issue:

"The issue is that in 1809, overwriting files by extracting from an archive using File Explorer doesn’t result in an overwrite prompt dialogue and also doesn’t replace any files at all; it just fails silently. There are also some reports that it did overwrite items, but did so silently without asking."

Other users are confirming the same issue, and there's currently an entry about it on the Windows 10 FeedbackHub.

Really, what were we expecting?

No word yet on whether Microsoft will actually delay 1809's redeployment over this issue, as they've yet to issue a statement on the subject that I've been able to find. Unlike the previous data-deletion issue, this one can be worked around by simply using 7zip, or some other third-party unzipping application, rather than Windows 10's built in archiving functionality.

Still, there's really no way around it; for an update that's already been pulled due to another (much more serious) user data deletion issue, and which has also been plagued with reports that users are having BSOD issues, it really seems like it's time to simply pull the plug on 1809 entirely. Just admit that it's not ready for release, cancel the fall roll-out, finish fixing the fucking thing, and then re-release it in the Spring. The current 19H1 release can be pushed back to next fall, if necessary, thus benefiting from extra development and testing time -- time that Microsoft clearly needs in order to deliver reliably bug-free products.

Yes, that would mean delaying the much-hyped "feature" that allows users to delete more of Microsoft's own bloatware, but MSFT clearly didn't think that was much of a priority before now, and are only making half-hearted efforts in that direction, anyway (when they start allowing users to remove Edge and Cortana, in addition to Groove Music and Paint 3D, let me know, but until then, I'll continue to say they're not really serious about bloatware). And delaying both 1809 and 19H1 would allow them to make the necessary internal changes to focus their team's attention on the quality and completeness of these releases, something which is sorely lacking now.

Microsoft's "fixed" 1809 update still has serious problems

Faced with the rapidly-escalating PR nightmare of their data-deleting 1809 update to Windows 10, Microsoft first halted the update's rollout, and then hastily patched it before continuing onward. It looks like they once again skipped crucial testing phases, though, because the updated update has issues of its own, including an apparent BSOD issue. That's right, years after Windows 7's stability had largely succeeded in relegating the Blue Screen of Death to Windows history, MSFT's cascading Windows-as-a-Service failures may now have resurrected it as a modern reality.

From Neowin:

Earlier this week, Microsoft pushed out its monthly set of updates to various versions of Windows 10, including version 1809. It seems, however, that this patch carries its own major problems. Users all over the internet are reporting that their devices are getting into a blue screen of death (BSOD) after the update, preventing them from booting.

[...] 

The problem doesn't seem to affect just the feature update released last week, but users on the April 2018 Update are apparently facing similar issues. While most people reporting the error are using HP devices, Neowin user Mike Steel heard from Microsoft's support that it actually affects other brands as well and that the patch has since been pulled from Windows Update.

The number of issues found in the latest release of Windows 10 seems to suggest that Microsoft needs to rethink the way it deploys its updates. It also may leave some wondering if the Insider program, which is meant to help shape the operating system, has lost its way over the past four years.

Yes, Microsoft, you've also earned a facepalm. Congratulations?

To say that the Insider program has "lost its way" seems to be overly generous; it's increasingly clear that the Insider program is simply not an adequate substitute for the sort of disciplined, rigorous testing that MSFT  simply doesn't do anymore, having laid off their product testers.

It's long past time for MSFT to simply admit that their Windows As A Service strategy simply doesn't work, and that using their WX 10 Home user base as involuntary guinea pigs, trouble-shooing the OS for the benefit of Microsoft's valued Enterprise customers with no choice or compensation, is not only unethical, but actively damaging. And that damage isn't limited to WX Home users; MSFT's brand and reputation deteriorate further with each new failure of their WaaS regime, and especially undermines their efforts to convince potential Enterprise customers that WX+WaaS is just fine.

WX+WaaS is not fine; it's broken, a fact which is becoming more evident as each new failure is triggered by MSFT's failure to recover from the last failure.

Extremely. Bad. Timing.

To say that Microsoft isn't having the best month would be quite an understatement, at this point. With Windows 10 (WX) losing ground yet again to Windows 7 (W7) in global usage share, and MSFT pulling WX's 1809 update because it was permanently deleting user's data, it's turning into the roughest month that the Windows team has notched in years. So.... what better time for people to discover that MSFT stealthily increased prices a few weeks ago?

That's right, dear readers, in a move which was obviously planned months ago, and obliviously enacted at the start of this increasingly terrible month for Microsoft, they really are hiking the price of WX's Home version. Yes, you read that correctly: the Home version. Yes, really.

From MSPoweruser:

If you are one of the rare buyers of the OS (e.g. you want to install it in Bootcamp on your Mac) then you will find the Windows tax has just seen an increase.

Windows 10 Home will now set you back $139, a $19.01 increase over the earlier $119.99 price. It is not 100% clear when the price increase went into effect, but near as we can tell it was some time in early September.

[...]

Given the recent quality issues with Windows 10 recently do our readers think the price increase is justified?

That's a really good question, MSPoweruser! Let us spend several hundred words exploring a very detailed answer to it... jk, the answer is obviously no. Hell, no. Fuck, no. Are you kidding me? No!

That this change was rolled out quietly, rather than receiving any sort of announcement, is not nearly as surprising as the fact that it happened at all. What are they smoking in Redmond, and can I buy some locally? Because stuff like that is about to become legal in my neck of the woods, and I'm thinking that Satya Nadella's team must really have a line on the good shit.

What Microsoft should have done... but will never, ever do

In the wake of the bungled 1809 update rollout, people are already asking what Microsoft should have done differently, or could/should do differently going forward. PC World has some pretty reasonable-sounding thought on that subject:

Microsoft strives to make milestone upgrades sound as innocent and painless as possible. But as any PC enthusiast (and our Windows upgrade guides) can tell you, tinkering with the very core of your operating system carries inherent risk.

[...]

The Microsoft’s Windows 10 upgrade prompt whitewashes the severity of major updates, and doesn’t make it obvious that significant surgery will occur underneath the hood, let alone the risk that major surgery entails. It just sounds like you’ll wait a little more than usual after you reboot and get rewarded for your patience with cool new stuff. And to be fair, that’s all that happens in the vast majority of cases.

[...]

As the disastrous October 2018 Update proves, there’s enough risk present in major operating system upgrades that Microsoft needs to make users aware of it. Milestone upgrade prompts like the one cited above from the Fall Creators Update already get custom text, so all Microsoft needs to do is add “We advise backing up your data first” to it. A handful of words can prevent a heap of headaches.

That sounds pretty reasonable. Hell, it is pretty reasonable. It's also never going to happen, because Microsoft's future plans all rely on Windows 10 being delivered as a service, and on pushing cloud versions of everything on users who have been reluctant to adopt them.

WX 1809 update negligence gets worse

So, do you remember that "bug" in the 1809 update, that finally prompted Microsoft to pull it yesterday? Well, here's the thing about that... funny story... it's not new. As reported by ZDNet:

As ZDNet reported yesterday, the Windows 10 October 2018 version 1809 upgrade hasn't gone well for a bunch of users who lost documents and photos after updating.

What's worse, it appears that Microsoft may have let this bug slip through testing with Windows Insiders during the preview of Windows 10 version 1809.

As noted by MSPoweruser, Windows insiders hit the exact same snag during Microsoft's preview phase of the Windows 10 version 1809 when updating from version 1803.

For some unknown reason, moving up to Windows 10 version 1809 may delete all the files in user folders. The folders remain, but the files within them are gone, leaving users in potentially a worse pickle than ransomware victims experience.

WX's spring update was delayed from its originally planned April launch into May by an unspecified-but-serious issue, but Microsoft never did say what the issue was. Apparently this was the issue, and it's certainly enough of an issue to have justified the delay of the 1803 update's rollout. The fact that WX still has this issue, though, and that Microsoft didn't think it important enough to delay the 1809 update's rollout, elevates this from incompetence to malice. It's simply mind-blowing.

And the only defense against this happening to you, both with this update and with and and all future updates, is Microsoft's OneDrive cloud storage service, which is not free if you need to back up more than 50GB of data. It's as if Microsoft is engaged in a low-key shakedown of the entire WX user base. Holy ransomware, Batman! Except this ransomware is your OS, and thus can't be avoided.

I've said it before, I'll say it again, and I'm not alone in saying it: I don't care if it comes from Microsoft, Windows 10 is malware.

Windows 10 update pulled by Microsoft

In a completely uncharacteristic move, Microsoft has done an abrupt 180° on their aggressive Windows 10 update regime, announcing that they were pulling an October update which was deleting users' files. This is a marked contrast to their approach to the spring update, which was causing no end of problems for users but which Microsoft kept on rolling out, anyway; I guess a full day of headlines about their data-destroying update was finally enough to make them blink.

Windows Latest appears to the first site reporting on Microsoft's confirmation of the move:

Windows 10 October 2018 Update was released on October 2 and some users reported that the update is deleting their files and document. Today, Microsoft updated the Windows 10 download page and the company has removed the ISO files and Media Creation Tool no longer downloads Windows 10 version 1809.

[...]

When you will visit the Windows 10 download page, you’ll be greeted with old “Windows 10 April 2018 Update” heading. Upon checking, we discovered that Microsoft has also removed the ISO links and the Media Creation Tool is not downloading the October 2018 Update (version 1809) anymore, at least on your end.

[...]

“We have paused the rollout of the Windows 10 October 2018 Update (version 1809) for all users as we investigate isolated reports of users missing some files after updating,” explains Microsoft in a support document.

The support document itself is a terse bit of understatement:

We have paused the rollout of the Windows 10 October 2018 Update (version 1809) for all users as we investigate isolated reports of users missing some files after updating.

Those are the facts. Now let's get real about them.

1. Microsoft's support document note does its best to downplay the problem, but bearing in mind that they kept rolling out the spring update in spite of widespread reports of significant issues with it, I think we can safely assume that there was nothing "isolated" about this problem. They would not have stopped the rollout for anything other than a major issue with the potential for widespread liability.
2. Users were not reporting "some" missing files; they were reporting the loss of everything not backed up to Microsoft's OneDrive service, specifically. For those that were affected by the issue, the loss of data was total, with no absolutely no way to recover the lost data.
3. Microsoft has not issued any other statement about this issue so far, and have not yet attempted to explain why an otherwise routine OS update would be designed to delete users' files for any reason whatsoever.

Remember those class actions lawsuits that I predicted yesterday? I'm standing by that prediction. We won't hear anything about them until next week at the earliest, so the class action land speed record set after the recent Facebook data breach is safe for now, but I'm fairly certain that enough people were affected, and their losses significant enough, for lawsuits to be an inevitable thing.

Don't get me wrong; I think that Microsoft's decision to pull this update was absolutely the right call. To ignore the harm that they were clearly causing by pushing this update to users (who, once again, cannot refuse it, at least if they're running Windows 10 Home) would have been indefensible. The fact that reversed course to stop the rollout of an update which was causing untold amounts of damage to users is a good thing; it doesn't, however, excuse the fact that this made its way into the update in the first place. That still needs an explanation; I'll be watching with interest to see if we ever get one from Redmond.