Like a lot of people, I was rather underwhelmed by Nintendo's reveal of the Nintendo Switch.
It was clear why Nintendo was focusing on a handheld device as its future, of course, but I wasn't convinced that it would take off. I wasn't impressed by the unit itself, or its advertising campaign, and I wasn't convinced that a console/handheld hybrid would sell to anyone other to Nintendo's hard-core faithful, with PC apparently eclipsing every console except the PS4 and handheld gaming losing out to smartphones. And so, naturally, Nintendo's Switch went on to break all the records.
In spite of that record-breaking debut year, however, there are a few dark clouds on Switch's horizon, and I'm still far from convinced that the Switch is destined to be the best-selling console of this console generation. Here's why:
In spite of last year's record-breaking 1st year sales numbers, Nintendo's Switch still didn't manage to out-sell Sony's PS4. In fact, Sony managed to fend off the record-breaking Switch and Microsoft's hot new XBOX console to hit 70.6 million units sold -- still well behind Steam's 125+ million users, but well ahead of its living-room competitors. Nintendo have already doubled their 2018 production targets, of course, from 8 million units to 16 million, but that pace will still put them behind Sony's PS4 sales, even if Sony's results are only on a par with last year's. For the Switch to fall short of the PS4's sales in its first year doesn't necessarily hurt Nintendo, especially given how many production problems they had for most of that first year, but if they can't gain ground on the console sales leader in their first full calendar year on shelves, then they might be in a bit of trouble.
We haven't heard much about Nintendo's sales numbers this year. Some analysts are projecting that it will hit 17 million by April, but that's only a sales pace of 2 million for the 1st quarter -- significantly slower than last year's pace... a pace that wasn't fast enough for Switch to actually gain ground on the PS4. 2 million units sold in the first quarter of the year isn't bad, but it's not enough for them to gain ground on console leader Sony, which is what Nintendo desperately need to start doing if they're to make up for the lost WiiU years.
This year's game releases aren't getting as much attention as last year's. While last year's Nintendo Switch games did include some heavy-hitting first party titles, it was mostly notable for being a greatest hits parade of ports, featuring Nintendo Switch versions of some of the most popular and/or best-reviewed games of recent years. There were a couple of chancers who rushed out some horrible shovelware, hoping to cash in on the Switch's unexpected popularity, but they were relatively few in number, last year; most of the ports were of top-drawer AAA games like Skyrim, or fan-favourite indie games like Shovel Knight.
This year's crop is a distinctly more... mixed, shall we say, with a lot more lower-quality offerings, and fewer "greatest hits" still remaining to be ported to the system. It's nowhere near Steam levels of shovelware yet, but it's not as impressive as it used to be, and the announcements themselves are now commonplace enough to be getting a lot less attention... which means that the Switch is also getting less attention.
The upcoming first party titles aren't much help, either. Games like Pokemon and Super Smash Bros will obviously appeal to Nintendo's already-established fan base, but they may have mostly bought their switches already. For people who aren't huge fans of Nintendo's games, or the unique aesthetic which they mostly feature, there's really only Bayonetta 3, which is still in its early development stages, and unlikely to be released this year.
As for upcoming third-party, Switch-first releases... well, if you've heard of any, let me know. There are quite a few indie developers who are looking at the Switch as a market where their games can garner the kind of discoverability that's becoming increasingly difficult to achieve on Steam, of course, but indie games don't sell expensive hardware, in and of themselves.
There's still no evidence that "on the go" gamers are hungry for handheld, or unhappy with their smartphones as a mobile gaming platform. Again, impressive as the Switch's 2017 sales numbers were, they're still only slightly higher than the WiiU's -- easily explained by high adoption rates among Nintendo's most ardent fans. Whether there are enough core gamers who want a dedicated, portable gaming option badly enough, and who have deep enough pockets to buy all their favourite games again at full retail plus Nintendo's cartridge tax, to opt for the Switch as a gaming option... well, let's just say that the jury is still out, on that question.
For most commuters, who typically have less than thirty minutes to game during their trips to/from work, a dedicated handheld simply isn't necessary. My commute involves the CTrain, Calgary Transit's LRT system which connects every bus route to every other bus route, and to the city's core, so I see a wide range of commuters in terms of different industries, workplace types, and income levels on a daily basis, and I see plenty of smartphone games being played by my fellow office drones... but I've yet to spot even a single Switch in the wild. That's hardly scientific, of course, but I can't help but wonder how big a city you'd have to live in before Switch-equipped commuters become even an occasional occurrence, let alone a common one.
Those are the doubts that people like myself raised right from the outset: that the Switch wasn't powerful enough to lure console customers away from Sony's PS4, and that dedicated handheld gaming devices weren't popular enough outside of Japan to make up the difference. Unless they spend a lot of time away from home, people just don't need several hundred dollars of portable gaming device, when they all have smartphones on them at all times which can give them their gaming fix on the go. Are there enough core gamers who travel for work to elevate Nintendo's Switch to the same sales success as the Wii? I mean, it's possible, but I have doubts.
There are still build quality issues with, and crucial features missing from, the Switch. The fact that the Switch is in the news because 3rd party docks are bricking owners' consoles is noteworthy for a couple two reasons: 1) because it's yet another negative story about the Switch's technical issues, and 2) because Nintendo's stock dock is sufficiently crappy that people are buying 3rd party replacements in the first place. The Switch's supplied dock, remember, can easily scratch the Switch's plastic screen... a build quality issue that we shouldn't be seeing in a portable computing device in 2018, especially given the devices actual cost.
Because the Switch's sticker price isn't what the Switch will cost you. At the very least, you'll need to spend an extra US$100 or so on a high-capacity SD card to provide the kind of onboard storage space that gaming devices simply must have in this era of digital distribution, frequent patches, and large downloads. The fact that the Switch doesn't have cloud saves, or the ability to set the device to store your saved games on the SD card by default, are significant issues for a device that's billed as a replacement for devices that you already own.
And there's the fact that the Switch is the only device that you can't get Netflix on, something of a sticking point for a device that connects to your TV. Or the fact that it doesn't support Bluetooth headphones... something of a sticking point for a kickstand-equipped device whose headphone jack is on the bottom edge of the machine, rather than on its top or side edges. Oops. Or the fact that in-game chat is accomplished using your smartphone -- awkward, especially considering that Nintendo is hoping that the Switch will supplant your smartphone for on-the-go gaming. And so on, and so on...
Nintendo's most ardent fans mostly didn't care about these issues; they complained about them, naturally, but they still bought Switches anyway. The broader consumer base is unlikely to be so forgiving, though, and the lack of a Switch variant with a Gorilla Glass screen, reasonable onboard storage, and intelligent headphone jack placement could well hurt the system's sales with consumers who care about quality... which is all of them.
This is not to simply "hate" on the Switch. I don't own stock in Nintendo, or in any of Nintendo's competitors; although I'm a PC gamer, I'm not "religious" about it, and I don't begrudge fans of other platforms one bit of the joy they get from those platforms. I think it's refreshing that Nintendo have achieve some level of success making, and selling, an actual console, as opposed to simply making living-room/media centre PCs like Sony and Microsoft both did; the fact that their console doubles as a handheld gaming system is not a bad thing. I'm just not convinced that Nintendo's weird, underpowered hybrid machine will be able to achieve the same level of broad-reaching success that the original Wii reached. Rather than ushering in a new era of dedicated, handheld gaming devices, the Switch could simply represent their last hurrah.
I could be wrong, of course. Like a lot of doubters, I spent most of the Switch's first year being alternately skeptical of, and surprised by, what Nintendo achieved with the Switch's debut. But I'll need to see proof that the Switch can overcome these issues to achieve Wii-like levels of success before I start treating that success as a foregone conclusion. It might still happen, sure, but there are also plenty of reasons why it might not happen. I don't wish Nintendo ill, but if their leadership team isn't aware of, and working hard to resolve, some of these issues, then their comeback may yet prove to be short-lived.