Windows 10 dipped from 34.29% last month to 34.06% this month, a drop of 0.23%. Windows 7 dipped slightly, too, from 42.39% to 41.61%, a drop of 0.78%. Windows 8.1 and XP both gained slightly (+0.10% and +0.65%, respectively), which was unexpected.
Windows lost ground overall, again, dipping by 0.13% to 87.66%. MacOS lost ground this month, though, dipping by 0.06% to 9.89%, which is the opposite of previous months. Linux gained overall, rising from 1.93% to 2.08%, an overall gain of 0.15%.
In short, none of this month's numbers make any sense, with Windows' most popular versions both losing ground to versions which were looking pretty much dead until right now, and none of the gains seemingly being enough to offset the losses. Which most likely means one of two things: (a) these numbers are some sort of weird anomaly, and next month's numbers will revert to the overall trend of previous months, or (b) this month's numbers contain actual errors, and NMS will be updating them later in the day with corrected values.
The third and perhaps less likely option is that some sort of shift to Linux actually is underway, that NMS's new methodology and revamped data sets were only able to obscure for so long before they reasserted themselves in the data. We'll have to see if NMS let this set of numbers stand, or what StatCounter and the Steam Survey have to say about the current state of the OS market.
Regardless, however, one thing is clear: this month's shifts in the market are still very small. Which means that we've now gone three full months since my mid-November prediction that we wouldn't see any significant shifts in the OS market. So, yes, I'm calling it: that prediction is confirmed. And since VR still isn't a thing, either, that give me a record of 3 and 1 for my prognostications, with only the Nintendo Switch performing better than I expected. Not too shabby, if I do say so myself.
UPDATED 11:43 am MST:
If NMS are planning to update their numbers, then they're being slower about it than usual, because nothing's changed yet, and media outlets like WinBuzzer are starting to pick up the story:
Microsoft has been rolling out the Windows 10 Fall Creators Update since last October. However, while the company recently finished the roll out, it has not helped Windows 10 to increase market share. The latest data from NetMarketShare shows Windows 10 actually lost market share during February.
The market watching firm says Windows 10 declined from 34.29% to 34.06% last month. Everyone now eligible to upgrade to the Fall Creators Update can now download the update. While Windows 10 remains low on fragmentation, there seems to be a slowdown of people adopting the new platform from older Windows versions.
In some ways, Microsoft is in a race against time. Windows 7 remains the most used Windows platform with a sizeable 41.61% market share. The company will end support for the Win7 in 2020, so by then most people will need to be running Windows 10.Still waiting on StatCounter and Steam, but it's looking like we can eliminate option (b) from our list.
UPDATED March 2nd:
It took StatCounter a full extra day to post their end-of-February results, and once again, they see the OS market landscape very, very differently than NMS:
According to StatCounter, WX not only held onto its lead from last month, it climbed further, growing from 42.38% to 43.53% of the Windows market, while W7 dips from 41.86% to 41.59%. They also have Windows gaining overall, from 36.56% to 36.69%.
I'm conflicted as to how to view these results. On the one hand, SC's numbers are consistent with their previous numbers, showing the same steady climb for WX that they always show, but I've also always been deeply suspicious of the steady WX climb that SC keeps seeing. NMS's stats have generally looked more realistic, honestly displaying the sort of month-to-month fluctuations that you'd expect to see, given the way both NMS and SC collect their data. Both of them are doing some weighting and processing of those numbers, but NMS have seemed to take a "warts and all" approach to that which preserves the integrity of the data, even if it means apparent inconsistency; SC seem to value consistency above all else.
On the other hand, NMS's end-of-Feb. numbers seem to make very little logical sense, while SC's tell a clear and consistent story. And I expect that SC's storytelling, which dovetails neatly with the pre-established WX narrative that tech media outlets have already decided on, will get a lot more attention than NMS's messier-but-more-transparent approach. Tech writers have spent two years expecting to write about WX's inevitable rise to dominance, and have been favouring SC over NMS for most of a year already, simply because SC is telling the story that the media were already primed for. Whether it's true or not, seems not to matter much.
I could be wrong about that, of course, but given how many tech media outlets ignored NMS's stats yesterday, even as SC took an extra day to massage their own results enough to fit the narrative, doesn't give me much hope for anything like a balanced approach to this one. We'll know for sure in a few hours, but I fully expect a flood of stories to start rolling out in the next few hours, trumpeting WX's continued gains and W7's expense, and telling W7 users to just switch, already, all while they ignore NMS's entire existence. There will be a few that mention NMS's contrarian results in passing, near the bottom of the page, but apart from WinBuzzer and WCCFTech, the only outlet that I expect genuine balance from is The Reg.
Hell, Windows Latest was already writing about SC's numbers yesterday, before they even posted them (at least publicly), and citing the previous month's stats as justification. Balance will be hard to find, here.
UPDATED: March 2nd, 12:29 PM MST:
It looks like the only other outlet to take notice of this month's market share numbers isn't the Reg, but the Inquirer, and they're writing about NetMarketShare's numbers, not StatCounter's. And their headline is about as blunt as it comes:
Ouch. I mean, yes, but still... very ouch.
THIS MONTH'S Netmarketshare figures are almost static, but are still worth a look. The very fact that they are so static will be frustrating, particularly for Microsoft, which is still desperately trying to find the carrot to bring businesses on to Windows 10.
Unlike with Windows 8, which was just terrible for businesses, Windows 7 remains not broken and so there's no rush to fix it. Mild threats like Office 2019 not being available outside Windows 10, or withdrawing the old Skype client, are just not a big enough deal to a big enough group to get people invested in the switch.That Skype thing may actually be acting as a disincentive. I hate the new Skype, and was, frankly, pissed when my Skype client "upgraded" itself to a new version with fewer features and a worse interface, but it doesn't make me want to switch to Windows 10... it makes me want to switch to something other than Skype. Colour me pleased when my parents, for whom I'd installed fucking Skype in the first place, annouced that they wanted to start experimenting with Google Hangouts instead, because they also hate the new Skype. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.
We'll have to see if StatCounter's take on the OS market gets more play in the coming few hours, but it's currently looking like nobody else is much buying their hype, either. Either than, or a whole lot of media outlets figure that the story was ended when WX managed to pass W7's numbers in even one index, and they've now moved on to chasing shinier objects. Either way, though... I approve.