Déjà vu, all over again

So, just like last month, when NetMarketShare balked at reporting what their data was clearly telling them, they've once again massaged their stats and reposted them. And, as expected, the result is a slightly smaller swing than their earlier posted stats indicated.

The old version put Windows' overall OS market share at 82.2%, and "Other" (a.k.a. Linux) at 13.04%. The new version looks like this:

This version of the numbers puts Windows at 86.21% overall, with Windows 7 declining to 46.22% (-2.21%), and Windows 10 increasing to 28.65% (+0.66%). Linux, meanwhile, gained 2.15% to finish at 9.99% overall. That 86.21% number is especially interesting; it's almost exactly what NetMarketShare had originally reported as Windows' overall market position in their first version of last month's stats.

While this new analysis of their data shows a smaller swing from Windows to Linux, it still does show a swing from Windows to Linux, and a big one. Especially in light of Satya Nadella's recent remarks, downplaying the importance of Windows to Microsoft, it seems that the Linux Shift is actually a thing. We're not left wondering whether or not it's happening, only how quickly... and, of course, why now?

I fully expect that next month's stats will show a continuation of this same trend. Windows 10's growth is still sluggish; breathless reports that it would overtake Windows 7 in a matter of months are missing the point. Yes, Windows 7's user base appears to be changing operating systems, but they're not migrating to Windows 10 -- they're migrating away from Windows altogether, and trend which Microsoft are already trying to downplay the importance of. We could be months away from a market in which Windows 7, Windows 10, and Linux split the market more-or-less evenly between them.

What impact that might have on the world of desktop computing is impossible to say. Microsoft's Windows has been so dominant on desktops for so long that it's difficult to imagine what the world of desktop PCs will look like when that dominance comes to an end. One thing is becoming increasingly clear, though; Windows' dominance on the desktop is coming to an end, and sooner than anyone ever thought possible.

Once again, I will preserve both of my posts on this topic, in order to preserve NetMarketShare's originally-posted evidence of the nascent Linux Shift as it progresses. I have the feeling that this same sequence of events will play out again in November, and in December, and in January, and at some point, the limitations of regression analysis will simply not be able to mask the evidence of the Shift anymore. How Microsoft's supporters react on that day will be interesting to see.