A quick note on StatCounter

Microsoft's supporters have been quick to seize on StatCounter's version of the month's numbers, which show a much rosier picture for Microsoft, choosing to ignore NetMarketShare (and the Linux Shift that stubbornly keeps showing up in their data) almost entirely. Wayne Williams at betanews made an interesting comment about this phenomenon:

Before we get into it, it's important to note that StatCounter's numbers are reported differently from NetMarketShare's, because they just break down Windows's share, whereas NetMarketShare's numbers include other operating systems, such as different flavors of macOS and Linux.

[...]

Taking an average of the last three months, StatCounter has Windows 10 overtaking Windows 7 in December, while NetMarketShare doesn’t have that happening until next September.

Neither agree with Microsoft’s figures, which claimed the big event happened 10 months ago.

We'll know in a couple of months whether StatCounter is right on the money, or completely out to lunch; it's possible that Windows 7 could lose enough users to Linux to put them at parity with Windows 10, without Windows 10 actually growing much. This shift in the market is being widely reported as Windows 10 "catching up" to Windows 7, but it might be more a case of Windows 7 running out of gas, while Linux comes up quickly from behind to catch both of them.

When people tell you that Windows 10 is making huge gains in the marketplace, though, remember that there is no evidence yet to support that conclusion. It is, in a word, hype. Never believe the hype.