The establishment of VR arcades will enable VR content and hardware developers to provide facilities for consumers to try out immersive VR experiences and thereby to accelerate development of the VR industry, according to Jack Tong, founder and CEO of JPW International Technology.
The space, services and related equipment provided by arcade shops will serve as the growth drivers of the VR industry, Tong added. [...]
VR arcades will also serve as platforms for continued optimization of related hardware devices and software upgrades, as well as venues for cross-border tournaments of VR games, a business model which is suitable for long-term operations, Tong stressed.
OK, first things first. Yes, if enough VR arcades are opened, and if enough quality VR experiences are available in them, and if enough people can be convinced to frequent them, then VR arcades could provide all of the benefits that Mr. Tong claims. But those are necessary conditions, not merely sufficient ones; in order for the benefits to be realized, all three conditions must be met.
Which bring us to the first problem: outside of Japan, videogame arcades are not a thing. There are still coin-op videogames to be seen, mostly off to the side, in other businesses (e.g. movie theatres, which seem to be the places where I mainly see videogame cabinets these days), but the specialized "destination" arcades which boomed during the 80's all slowly went out of business during the 90's. Basically, outside of Japan, the only other market where people routinely leave home to get their game on is South Korea, where the PC bang reigns supreme.
So, Japan and S. Korea both boast a robust arcade-like gaming culture, and have existing businesses which could expand their operations to include VR. Everywhere else, though, VR arcades will be starting from scratch, having not only to start new businesses catering to VR enthusiasts, but also having to revive an arcade-going culture that died out decades ago. And, to be sure, some intrepid entrepreneurs are already doing exactly that, drawn in by VR hype, but the necessary condition isn't for some "VRcades" to be opened, but for enough VRcades to be opened.
How many is enough? Nobody knows, but I'd say that it's probably more than one per million residents; e.g. Calgary (pop. 1,235,171) boasts exactly one VR Arcade, one VR consultancy business, and one VR game rental service, and that one "VRcade" is run by the local "escape room" business, and needs to be booked in advance. With VR sales lagging, and no sign that consumers are interested in VR at all, those numbers are unlikely to increase much in the near future... which is exactly what's needed, if VR is to develop the way Mr. Tong is predicting.
And that brings us to the 2nd problem with this scenario: even if enough VRcades are built, consumer interest in VR is essentially nil right now. There's no guarantee that they will come, if you built it; in fact, the opposite case (you build it, and nobody comes) is looking to be much more likely. That will make it very hard for VRcades to succeed, even if they are established, and if VRcades show a tendency to struggle (or fail) then there's even less incentive to open them in the first place.
The fact that VR currently lacks any compelling content to draw in customers doesn't help, either. This is the biggest problem with VR, generally: it simply doesn't enable any experiences that are unique to VR. Existing experiences can be enhanced with VR, yes, but while something like Superhot VR may well be a more immersive experience than its "vanilla" version, it's still the basically same game, and playing it at home (on Steam, XBox, PS4, Linux, and Mac) will only cost you US$27.99 for unlimited playing time, with the added convenience of being available any time you feel like playing. Calgary's sole VRcade has to be booked in advance, remember; I'm not sure what their rates are, but if it's less than CAD$25.00 per hour, I'll be very surprised. After all, they have employess to pay, and rent to pay, and bills to pay, and obviously would like to realize some kind of profit on top of that.
So, outside of Japan and S.Korea, we're unlikely to see enough VRcades established to make any difference; consumer interest in VR is virtually nonexistent, so even those VRcades that do exist will struggle to attract customers; and if any VRcades do manage to lure customers into their buildings, they'll lack for compelling VR experiences to off them. Which brings us to the next question: what about Japan and S.Korea? With existing videogame arcades and PC bangs that can simply expand by adding VR, can Japenese and S. Korean VRcades convince enough skeptical consumers to try VR, and offer them enough high-quality, unique-to-VR experiences, to drive not only VR interest and adoption, but also VR technological development?
Because that's what Mr. Tong's scenario boils down to. With the EU and NA markets having essentially turned into VR wastelands, Mr. Tong is hoping that Japan and S. Korea can, by themselves, provide enough momentum to drive the development of VR technology and content to fuel a VR revolution that is stubbornly failing to materiallize. And it does seem more like wishful thinking than rational analysis. It smells like desperation, expecting that VRcades will spontaneously emerge, for no apparent reason, and propel us to a glorious VR future that's looking less and less likely all the time.
This is VR's Hail Mary pass. If it works, then the results could be amazing, but it will be a miracle if it works.