But it turns out that Gartner may have been less bullish about the AppleOS family than bearish on Windows 10. Because their predictions for Microsoft's OS are, apparently, fairly dire.
From betanews:
Gartner has a grim prediction for Microsoft which is pinning its hopes on Windows 10 and the forthcoming Creators Update. According to the research firm, Windows will lose OS share in 2017, and then flatline for at least the next two years.
Gartner’s prediction covers all flavors of Windows, but of course it really means Windows 10 since that is now Microsoft’s only readily available OS. Apple on the other hand is set for a brighter future, with its operating systems set to see continued growth.
The research firm says that Windows 10 was on around 260 million new devices in 2016, accounting for 11.2 percent of all devices (including PCs and phones) that shipped last year -- a total of 2.3 billion products.
[...]
However, Gartner says that the number of new products running Microsoft’s OS is forecast to see a 3 percent year-over-year decline in 2017 -- accounting for 252 million devices, mostly PCs -- while Apple shipments are set to recover and climb by 8 percent year-on-year, to 268 million shipments. Gartner expects Apple’s growth to continue for the next two years -- up by 3 percent in 2018 (276 million devices), and up by another 3 percent in 2019 (285 million).
In 2018, Microsoft is predicted to see near-zero percent growth (253 million devices) and in 2019 grow by just 1.8 percent (257 million).
That means that Apple’s operating systems will steal second place from Windows this year -- in terms of new device shipments that is -- and extend their lead in 2018-19.
It is the iPhone that is really driving Apple's success, and Windows Phone’s failure, combined with falling PC sales, that is Microsoft’s undoing. However, market saturation is a problem for both.
I'm still not sold on the iPhone resurgence that Gartner is predicting here -- it feels like they're predicting a return to sales form for Apple simply because they're Apple, and not because of any particular thing that Apple have planned for the coming year, or launched towards the end of last year. But the idea that any remaining growth will likely happen in mobile, a playing field that Microsoft have surrendered completely, makes a certain amount of sense.
But Gartner's bearish stance on the upcoming Creator's Update, and the fact that they're not predicting any sort of sales bump to come from nascent technologies like VR, feels right on the money to me. There simply aren't any features in the CU that ordinary consumers are likely to care about, and nothing that will move cost- and risk- averse Enterprise customers to the new platform en masse, either. AR and VR are just not nearly well-developed enough to be a factor.
One thing's for sure: it will be interesting to watch the numbers roll in this year, which could be a make-or-break year for Satya Nadella's Windows 10 strategy.