December 01, 2016

It was bound to happen eventually

With Windows 7 & 8 no longer available for sale, and Windows 10 now the only option available for buyers of new Windows PCs, Microsoft's new OS was going to see its market share start to increase this month. The only question was how much. Well, we now know the answer to that question: not that much.

This was October...
... and this is November.

From InfoWorld:
Windows usage reports for November are in, and the numbers are sobering. There's no call to start building a Windows 10-sized coffin, but it’s definitely time to stow the confetti and air horns. And if you're expecting to see a billion Win10 devices, you should be looking for an alternate universe.
Windows 10 adoption continues to disappoint, with NetMarketshare saying that OS accounted for 23.72 percent of all desktop OS usage in November, compared to 22.59 percent in October (see screenshot). The slight uptick stands in marked contrast to the Win10 ratchet slope that ended in August—the month when free upgrades to Win10 and the “Get Windows 10” campaign ceased.
Since January, Win10 usage has increased by nearly 12 percent, according to NetMarketshare. Over that same period, Win7 share has decreased by 5.3 percent, Win 8.1 by 2.4 percent, and XP by 2.8 percent. Windows 7 continues to dominate the desktop, with more than 47 percent of measured November usage—higher than it was in July.
Interestingly, while Windows XP may be down compared to January, it actually regained some ground over the past month, ticking up from 8.24% to 8.63%; Linux was up, too, from 2.18% to 2.31%; and MacOS gained as well, from 6.43% for all versions combined to 6.74%. 

But the big number, the one that everyone is watching, has to be Windows 10, which has finally crossed the 23% boundary for the first time since flirting with it (at 22.99%) in August. And all it took was to remove its two most popular competitors, Win7 and Win8, from the market. Microsoft, for the win! Pay no attention to the fact that Edge is still losing ground to Chrome and Firefox, on the browser side of things.

Again, from InfoWorld:
Browsers were another story, as Microsoft continues to drop precipitously.


According to NetMarketshare (screenshot), Chrome and Firefox use was up slightly in November, while the combination of IE and Edge share fell from 28.39 percent in October to 26.87 percent in November. Individually, both IE and Edge usage declined.
I guess the hard-sell tactics aren't working, eh?

So, yes, by eliminating Windows 10's most popular competitors from the market, Microsoft have finally managed to see some growth in Windows 10's share of the desktop OS market, which is significantly better than they'd been doing for the last couple of months. None of the earlier versions of Windows, including Windows XP, will be going anywhere anytime soon, though, and with Windows' other competitors are both showing signs of renewed life, Redmond should still be very nervous about the slow pace of Windows 10 adoption.

UPDATE: The Reg has a different, and rather interesting, take on the numbers.

This is something that hadn't occurred to me. From The Register:
As we've seen before, Windows 10 use spikes at the same time Windows 7 usage dips. Trust us: this is a weekend effect. Over at the right-hand edge of the chart you can see the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday, on which it looks like Americans really did spend time with family rather than online. The next day we see a smaller-than-usual weekday bounce for Windows 7 and then a normal weekend surge for Windows 10.
Windows 7's weekday decline is also obvious in the graph.
So, not only is Windows 10's growth spurt pretty marginal, it might be ephemeral, too? Suddenly, I can't wait for January 1st, so that we can test that hypothesis.