September 05, 2016

Is Linux a Threat to Windows?

Not according to these stats:

The stats appear to be from NetMarketShare, whose graphs I've become quite familiar with over the last few months, but the analysis is from Softpedia:
They say Linux is the best alternative to Windows for a number of reasons, and it’s no secret that there are plenty of users who actually jumped ship and went the open-source way just because of that.
But last month's statistics show that Windows continues to be the dominant desktop operating system out there, and what’s more, Linux isn’t posing any threat just yet despite the number of users who are making the transition.
Specifically, Windows is once again above the 90 percent historical threshold that it has been holding for so long thanks to a pretty successfully month of August.
Net Applications claims Windows is currently at 90.52 percent, up from 89.79 percent the month before. Windows’ worst month was April this year, when it dropped to 88.77 percent, but the OS has been recovering ever since.
Linux, on the other hand, is still super far behind with a share of just 2.11 percent. And what’s more, Linux is even dropping in terms of market share, as statistics show a decline from 2.33 percent it had in July.
But Linux is overall performing quite well, as it has now managed to maintain its share above 2 percent, so there’s definitely an increase brought by the number of users migrating from Windows.
Basically, Linux is still doing as well as it ever was, but it isn't benefitting from any mass migration of disgruntled Windows users. It may just be that switching to Linux involves too much work on the part of users, all to adopt a product with which they're unfamiliar, over a brand that they already know, even if they don't particularly like or trust that brand anymore. 

The status quo, even if actively bad, is often seen as preferable to an uncertain future. Windows users may not be happy with Microsoft, but they're sticking with the devil they know. All of which is perfectly predictable, in its way, but still... I'll admit to being a little disappointed. 

And with Windows 10 now being used by 50% of Steam customers, it looks like Valve's chance to push SteamOS as an alternative may be passing them by, too. Fully a third of Valve is now working on VR, even while developers that promised SteamOS/Linux versions of their games decide against making them.

Linux gamers shouldn’t buy games before they’re actually released for Linux or SteamOS. Lots of games—including big-name, AAA games—have gotten a wave of good press by announcing forthcoming support for Linux and SteamOS, which then never materialized.
There are lots of great games you can play on Steam Machines and Linux. That’s why it’s so disappointing when developers cancel announced ports or, worse yet, go silent and stop talking about them.
[...]
Many developers probably thought Steam Machines and SteamOS would be more successful when they made these promises, although some also thought their own games would be more successful, and had to scrambled when they weren’t.
Still, it’s a shame that developers so frequently back away on their promises. It’s a lesson to gamers everywhere: Don’t buy a game based on something the developer promises to release in the future, especially when it’s something as easily and frequently cancelled as support for Linux and SteamOS.
Ouch.

So... with the average user proving reluctant to take the Linux plunge, and Valve, who invested heavily in SteamOS and Linux as alternative gaming platforms, apparently abandoning those efforts to join the VR gold rush, is the Linux alternative still looking viable? The answer, sadly, is probably no. Not unless Valve decide to refocus their efforts on SteamOS and Steam Machine as gaming platforms, and continue working to secure their future in a Windows Store/Universal Windows Platform future, rather than chasing a VR future that's realistically still years, if not decades, away.